The State of Urbanisation: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

Abstract

The paper is a reflection on the phenomenon of urbanisation in India as seen within the global context. It touches upon the history of urbanisation, discusses its current state and makes enquiries into its future.

While we live in times of unprecedented urban expansion, there is a lack of adequate attention on the subject in both academic and policy circles. Estimates show that India’s rate of urbanisation has been slower than anticipated. That brings to light the discussion between those who celebrate a slowly urbanising India, wondering how the country would have managed if its towns and cities had grown even faster, and those who see this slow urbanisation as a potential concern for the quality and speed of the development process in the country.

The process of urbanisation is closely linked to higher economic growth and industrialsation. The paper discusses the transfer of labour from agriculture to manufacturing and services, which are typically located in urban areas, which then has a positive impact on growth. However, in India, whereas  services have grown rapidly, there appears to be a break in recent decades in the trend of the rising share of  urban income in GDP.

As Indian levels of urbanisation rise, managing and governing cities is an area that deserves serious thought and re-imagination. With city governance lying mainly with the All India Services – the IAS and IPS heading municipal and other bodies, municipal bodies have a limited role to play. This lowers the prestige and dignity of being employed with the latter. We must now channelise the vast pool of talent in the country towards better planning and governance of cities, rooted in a municipal framework.

With the emergence of remote work set-ups during the Covid-19 lockdowns and other solitary experiences of living life,  from the rise of e-commerce to food delivery and digital books, there could be an impact on urbanisation patterns and hence on the structure of large cities. With the potential impact of climate change, the effects of industrialisation and emissions on cities could bring about transformative changes in the way we will urbanise. What will these changes be, only time will tell, but the fact that India is still only 35-36% urbanised suggests that there is great potential for policies that promote more liveable Indian cities where citizens can lead fulfilling urban lives.