The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to decline in OECD countries as we move forward. However, oil and gas consumption in the non-OECD countries (especially India and China) is expected to not just compensate for this decline but also see an uptick. In India, the share of oil and gas in the energy mix today is ~ 35% and domestic projections expect this share to continue increasing until 2030-2035. This increase in demand is expected to have an impact on global and national investment cycles. In the past, India has been a target of supply interruptions which has resulted in price volatility, in spite of the long-term trend of abundance.

Several factors (global and local) are expected to be in play which will impact strategies in the Indian oil and gas sector: global trends of decarbonization and shifting away from fossil fuels, India’s mitigation strategy in the electricity sector, increased focus on decarbonization in the transport and industry sectors, increasing competition between alternate fuels, reducing fiscal imbalance, and continued focus on providing energy access to all at affordable prices to meet the development objectives.

In light of these global and domestic trends, the discussion aims to focus on India’s oil and gas strategies in this new age. This discussion will be held in public interest under Chatham House Rule and any comment will be without attribution. Please RSVP to Abhishek Mishra at amishra@brookingsindia.org to attend.

Panelists:

David Victor, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings, and Professor of International Relations, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California at San Diego

Sudha Mahalingam, former full time member of Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board and National Security Advisory Board

Anindya Chowdhury, Country Manager- India Energy Transitions Programme at Shell India Markets Pvt. Ltd.

Samantha Gross, Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings

Rahul Tongia, Fellow, Energy and Sustainability, Brookings India

Discussion Agenda

Oil supply security for India

• How does India’s oil supply strategy change in an abundant, but still price volatile world?
• Are domestic pricing reforms durable in an environment of rising crude oil prices and a depreciating rupee?
• How does the geopolitical situation in the Middle East impact India?
• Will new strategies and allies develop amongst global suppliers – OPEC+, gas “OPEC”?  How will these developments affect India’s energy security agenda?

India’s natural gas strategy

• What enabling conditions are required for domestic gas and LNG to play a greater role in India’s energy mix?
• What are global trends in the LNG market and what will be the impact of these changes on Indian imports?
• Is there scope for an India-US partnership on natural gas and LNG imports?