Managing Climate Change: A Strategy for India

This paper was originally published on July 6, 2022. An updated version of this paper was published on September 13, 2022.
Executive Summary:

The Glasgow Climate Summit (COP26) deserves credit for getting many developing countries to accept, for the first time ever, a long-term commitment to reduce the level of carbon emissions to net zero. This is a major break from their position in Paris 2015, where they only committed to reducing the emissions intensity of their gross domestic product (GDP). The new position reflected an acknowledgment of the seriousness of the problem of global warming and of the opportunities presented by new technology.

The seriousness was highlighted by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warned that if nothing is done global warming is likely to reach at least +2.8°C by the end of the century and this would have very negative effects on all countries with the developing countries being the worst affected (IPCC, 2021; 2022a). Meanwhile, developments in the technology presented new opportunities making it possible to meet the energy demand from renewables, thus effectively decoupling emissions and economic growth.

Most advanced countries, including some developing countries like South Africa, Vietnam, Thailand, etc., announced 2050 as their net zero date. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Nigeria and others committed to reach net zero by 2060, and India by 2070.

This paper examines the challenges India will face in implementing its commitments. Section I summarises India’s COP26 targets and outlines the broad strategy we must follow to achieve them. Sections II to V focus on what can be done to reduce emissions in sectors which account for almost all of the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, viz: power generation (50% of emissions in 2019), industries (32%), transport (13%), and buildings (5%). Section VI discusses afforestation and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) as ways of dealing with residual emissions. Section VII presents an assessment of the likely investment requirements of this transition. Section VIII presents the main conclusions.