CSEP Annual Report 2023

Friday, December 27

Thu

Jul

Seven Years of GST Revenues: Who Gained and Lost? Can it be Win-Win Going Forward?

July,

2024

04:30 PM to 06:00 PM (IST)

The Centre for Social and Economic Progress hosted a conversation between Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and former Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India and Anoop Singh, Distinguished Fellow, CSEP & NITI Aayog, and Member of the 15th Finance Commission, on Thursday, July 4, 2024, 4:30-6:00 PM IST. Attendees joined online via Zoom. The seminar was streamed live on YouTube.

<span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start"></span></p> <div><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start"></span></div> <div class="x_elementToProof"><b>About the Event</b></div> <div class="x_elementToProof"></div> <div class="x_elementToProof"> <p>The seminar will examine seven years of GST revenue performance – overall, centre and states. The main findings are as follows. Overall revenues have only now converged to pre-GST levels, a fact obscured by data reporting. Second, the Centre forewent up to 1 per cent of GDP in GST revenues for each of the seven years in order to finance the 14 per cent compensation guarantee to the states. States received a bounty in the aggregate of up to 0.5 per cent of GDP in that period. Not only did this reflect remarkable cooperative federalism, it is also a counterexample to the narrative of fiscal centralisation by the centre in the last decade. Third, the GST has worked broadly as expected to benefit the poorer states and the benefits have come mainly from the IGST component of revenues. Finally, going forward, folding the cess into the regular (and rationalised) rate structure can ensure that compensation may not be necessary.</p> </div> <div><strong><a href="https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1417195678904/WN_qKX0O33ZTWKO6BRySYYxLQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Click here to register</a></strong></div> <div></div> <div><b>Conversation With:</b></div> <ul> <li><b>Arvind Subramanian</b></li> </ul> <div> <div class="x_elementToProof">Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has been associated with the Institute since 2007. He was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Institute during 2013–14 and was on leave for public service from 2014 to August 2023.</div> <div></div> <div class="x_elementToProof">Previously, he was senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development, professor at Ashoka University, New Delhi, and visiting lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School. He served as the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India between 2014 and 2018. He currently advises the government of the Indian state Tamil Nadu on macroeconomic and sectoral issues.</div> <div></div> <div class="x_elementToProof">As Chief Economic Advisor during 2014–18, Subramanian oversaw the publication of the annual Economic Survey of India, which became a widely read document on Indian economic policy and development. For example, the 2018 Survey had 20 million views from over 190 countries in its first year of publication. Major initiatives carried out during his tenure included a uniform nationwide goods and services tax (GST), a bankruptcy code to tackle the Twin Balance Sheet challenge, a financial and digital platform for connectivity (the so-called JAM trinity), and universal basic income schemes.</div> <div></div> <div class="x_elementToProof">While at the Institute, Subramanian wrote two critically acclaimed books:<i> Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance</i>, published by PIIE in September 2011, and <i>India’s Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation</i>, published by Oxford University Press in 2008. Foreign Policy magazine named him one of the world’s top 100 global thinkers in 2011. He has written extensively for many academic journals on growth, trade, development, aid, India, Africa, and the World Trade Organization. His op-eds and essays have been cited and published in the Economist, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, New York Review of Books, and the Business Standard, and he is a regular columnist for Project Syndicate.</div> <div></div> <div>Before joining PIIE, Subramanian was the assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He served at the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) from 1988 to 1992 during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and previously taught at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.</div> <div></div> <div class="x_elementToProof">He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, and his M.Phil and D.Phil from the University of Oxford.</div> <div></div> <div><strong>Chair and Moderator:</strong></div> <ul> <li><strong>Anoop Singh</strong></li> </ul> <div> <p>Anoop Singh is Distinguished Fellow at NITI Aayog, Government of India. He is also Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), New Delhi. He has recently been Member, 15th Finance Commission of India, in the rank of Union Minister of State, a constitutional body that recommended tax sharing and grant transfers between the Union and the States for the period 2021-2026.</p> </div> <div> <p>Before that he has been Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University; Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific Global Regulatory and Strategy Policy, JP Morgan; and Member of the Working Party of the Robert Triffin International (RTI) on the reform of the international monetary system. At the International Monetary Fund, he was Director of the Asia and Pacific Department; Director of the Western Hemisphere Department; and Director of Special Operations.</p> </div> <div> <p>He holds degrees from the universities of Bombay, Cambridge, and the London School of Economics. His additional work experience includes being Special Advisor to the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. His recent publications include <i>Asia and the Changing Global Economy</i> (2022).</p> </div> </div> <p>Please contact Manmeet Ahuja at <a href="mailto:MAhuja@csep.org">MAhuja@csep.org</a> for general queries and Ayesha Manocha at <a href="mailto:AManocha@csep.org">AManocha@csep.org</a> for media queries.</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p>

About the Event

The seminar examined seven years of GST revenue performance – overall, centre and states. The main findings are as follows. Overall revenues have only now converged to pre-GST levels, a fact obscured by data reporting. Second, the Centre forewent up to 1 per cent of GDP in GST revenues for each of the seven years in order to finance the 14 per cent compensation guarantee to the states. States received a bounty in the aggregate of up to 0.5 per cent of GDP in that period. Not only did this reflect remarkable cooperative federalism, it is also a counterexample to the narrative of fiscal centralisation by the centre in the last decade. Third, the GST has worked broadly as expected to benefit the poorer states and the benefits have come mainly from the IGST component of revenues. Finally, going forward, folding the cess into the regular (and rationalised) rate structure can ensure that compensation may not be necessary.

Conversation With:

Arvind Subramanian

Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has been associated with the Institute since 2007. He was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Institute during 2013–14 and was on leave for public service from 2014 to August 2023.

Previously, he was senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development, professor at Ashoka University, New Delhi, and visiting lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School. He served as the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India between 2014 and 2018. He currently advises the government of the Indian state Tamil Nadu on macroeconomic and sectoral issues.

As Chief Economic Advisor during 2014–18, Subramanian oversaw the publication of the annual Economic Survey of India, which became a widely read document on Indian economic policy and development. For example, the 2018 Survey had 20 million views from over 190 countries in its first year of publication. Major initiatives carried out during his tenure included a uniform nationwide goods and services tax (GST), a bankruptcy code to tackle the Twin Balance Sheet challenge, a financial and digital platform for connectivity (the so-called JAM trinity), and universal basic income schemes.

While at the Institute, Subramanian wrote two critically acclaimed books: Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance, published by PIIE in September 2011, and India’s Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation, published by Oxford University Press in 2008. Foreign Policy magazine named him one of the world’s top 100 global thinkers in 2011. He has written extensively for many academic journals on growth, trade, development, aid, India, Africa, and the World Trade Organization. His op-eds and essays have been cited and published in the Economist, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, New York Review of Books, and the Business Standard, and he is a regular columnist for Project Syndicate.

Before joining PIIE, Subramanian was the assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He served at the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) from 1988 to 1992 during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and previously taught at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, and his M.Phil and D.Phil from the University of Oxford.

Chair and Moderator:

Anoop Singh

Anoop Singh is Distinguished Fellow at NITI Aayog, Government of India. He is also Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), New Delhi. He has recently been Member, 15th Finance Commission of India, in the rank of Union Minister of State, a constitutional body that recommended tax sharing and grant transfers between the Union and the States for the period 2021-2026.

Before that he has been Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University; Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific Global Regulatory and Strategy Policy, JP Morgan; and Member of the Working Party of the Robert Triffin International (RTI) on the reform of the international monetary system. At the International Monetary Fund, he was Director of the Asia and Pacific Department; Director of the Western Hemisphere Department; and Director of Special Operations.

He holds degrees from the universities of Bombay, Cambridge, and the London School of Economics. His additional work experience includes being Special Advisor to the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. His recent publications include Asia and the Changing Global Economy (2022).

Please contact Manmeet Ahuja at MAhuja@csep.org for general queries and Ayesha Manocha at AManocha@csep.org for media queries.

To register for this event please visit the following URL: →