Introduction:

Brookings India served as the knowledge partner for the Petrotech 2014 CEO Conclave, which focused its three sessions on the landscape of energy supply and demand projected for the year 2030. Panelists discussed the future of energy supplies, the implications of geopolitical stress on energy trade, and the P5 agenda (Planning, Politics, Policy, Production, and Pollution).

While discussing the energy basket in 2030 (Session 1), panelists explored changing demand and supply dynamics, the role and relevance of fossil fuels (coal /oil/gas), unconventional hydrocarbon (particularly shale gas and oil), and technological developments for producing energy more efficiently. The panel’s overall outlook was one of cautious optimism – while they were optimistic about the future of energy reserves, they expressed some caution, explaining that a variety of institutional changes were needed in order to make best use of the opportunities available.

To examine how the energy basket envisioned for 2030 would be impacted by geopolitical considerations (Session 2), panelists focused on India’s challenges in ensuring both energy security and energy stability. Taking into account recent developments on the geopolitical arena, the panelists considered whether currently energy-resource-dominant countries will maintain their positions of power or whether new discoveries of ‘unconventional’ and conventional resources will lead to a shift in political order.

In the final session, panelists explored how energy architectures of nations balance energy demand and supply so as to most effectively pursue the P5 agenda. Means of securing sources of energy, understanding implications of energy use on economic trends and realizing consequences of the energy utilization on the environment were examined. The overall framework that emerged was one of two “trilemmas” that exist at the macro and micro levels. The macro level trilemma is one of energy, economy, and environment, whereas on the micro level, it is concerned with access, efficiency, and emissions.

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