The Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) is delighted to invite you to a seminar titled “The 2047 Paradox: Why the World’s Youngest Nation Runs on Half an Engine—and the Blueprint to Unlock its Digital Dividend” on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, from 4:00 to 5:30 pm (IST) at the CSEP Auditorium, 6, Dr Jose P Rizal Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021.

The seminar will feature a presentation by Ejaz Ghani, Senior Fellow, Pune International Centre, and Senior Visiting Fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR). The presentation will be followed by a discussion with Radhicka Kapoor, Senior Employment Specialist, Decent Work Technical Support Team for South Asia, International Labour Organization (ILO), and Santosh Mehrotra, Visiting Professor, Centre for Development Studies, University of Bath, UK, & Higher School of Economics, Moscow. The session will be chaired and moderated by Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Distinguished Fellow, CSEP and Former Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Govt of India.

Please note that this is an in-person event only. If you are in Delhi on the day, please join us for the seminar. The event will be available on the CSEP website and YouTube channel upon completion.

Register here to attend

About the event

India stands at a historic but perilous pivot point. While official data celebrates a “global economic miracle” of soaring GDP, the reality on the streets reveals a deepening “Jobs Paradox”: the fundamental failure of the economic system to translate growth into mass employment. As we march toward 2047, India’s greatest asset—its demographic dividend—threatens to become a demographic curse.

This seminar, based on the forthcoming work The 2047 Paradox, provides a definitive, evidence-based diagnosis of this malaise. Moving beyond macroeconomic models, we unmask a micro-foundational pathology rooted in a breakdown of institutional trust. We identify two primary structural brakes:

1. The Collateral Trap: A land-finance nexus where opaque land titles force banks to demand physical collateral, systematically starving young, high-potential firms of credit while subsidizing inefficient incumbents.
2. The Triple Tax: A combination of regulatory, social, and institutional barriers that suppress women entrepreneurs and lock a massive portion of the potential workforce out of the economy.

Drawing on decades of empirical research, we refute the “Industrial Engine” myth, proving that young firms (<5 years old) create 95% of net new jobs, yet are stunted by the “missing middle” phenomenon.

The seminar outlines a New Social Compact—a radical roadmap to fix these foundational flaws. The blueprint rests on two synchronised pillars:

• The Structural Fix: Conclusive land titling and an “Institutional Revolution” to end bureaucratic friction.
• The Technological Bypass: Leveraging India’s unique Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)—Aadhaar, UPI, and data-rich lending—to bypass the Collateral Trap and democratize credit.

By transitioning from a top-down industrial policy to a bottom-up entrepreneurial ecosystem, India can resolve the mismatch between jobs, skills, and mobility. This session will provide policymakers, business leaders, and students with the granular “How-To” for securing India’s future and demonstrating global leadership in solving the 21st-century crises of productivity and inclusion.

Chair and Moderator

Montek Singh Ahluwalia

Montek Singh Ahluwalia is a Distinguished Fellow at CSEP. An economist and civil servant, he was former Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission, Government of India. He joined the Government in 1979 as Economic Adviser in the Ministry of Finance, after which he held a series of positions including Special Secretary to the Prime Minister; Commerce Secretary; Secretary in the Department of Economic Affairs; Finance Secretary in the Ministry of Finance; Member of the Planning Commission and Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. In 2001, he was appointed as the first Director of the newly created Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund. He resigned from that position in 2004 to take up the position of Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission which he held from 2004 to 2014.

Mr Ahluwalia has been a key figure in Indian economic policy. He writes on various aspects of development economics and has been published in prominent Indian and international journals and books. He co-authored Re-distribution with Growth: An Approach to Policy, which, published in 1975, was a path-breaking book on income distribution. In February 2020, he published his book, Backstage: The Story Behind India’s High Growth Years, an insider’s account of policymaking from 1985 to 2014.

For his outstanding contribution to economic policy and public service, he was conferred the prestigious ‘Padma Vibhushan’ in 2011, India’s 2nd highest civilian award for exceptional and distinguished service.

Mr Ahluwalia graduated from Delhi University and holds an MA and an MPhil in Economics from Oxford University. He is an Honorary Fellow of Magdalen College Oxford.

Presenter

Ejaz Ghani

Ejaz Ghani is currently Senior Fellow at the Pune International Centre, and Senior Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi, India. He was previously Lead Economist at the World Bank and has worked on Africa, East Asia, South Asia, Corporate Strategy, and Independent Evaluation Unit. He writes economic opinion columns for Business Standard, Hindu, Financial Express, Mint, VoxEU, and Project Syndicate, and is an agenda contributor for the World Economic Forum.

He has edited several books, including India’s Pathways to Success: Winning in the next decade Rupa Publications India 2023 (with Ganesh Natarajan); Reshaping Tomorrow–Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap? Oxford University Press 2011; The Poor Half Billion in South Asia, Oxford University Press 2010; The Service Revolution in South Asia, Oxford University Press 2010; Accelerating Growth and Job Creation in South Asia (with S. Ahmed) 2009; Promoting Economic Cooperation in South Asia (with S. Ahmed and S. Kelegama), 2009; and Growth and Regional Integration (with S. Ahmed) Macmillan 2007.

Prior to joining The World Bank, he taught economics at St. Anne’s College (Oxford University) and Shri Ram College of Commerce (Delhi University). He obtained an M.Phil. & D.Phil. in Economics from Oxford University. He did his schooling in Bihar; Bachelors at St. Stephen’s College; and Masters at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. He is an Inlaks scholar.

Discussants

Radhicka Kapoor

Radhicka Kapoor is the Senior Employment Specialist at the ILO Decent Work Technical Support Team (DWT) for South Asia at the New Delhi office, India. She offers strategic policy and technical advice on diverse employment issues, aiming to enhance the quality and quantity of jobs in South Asia.

Before joining the ILO, Radhicka served as a Senior Faculty Member at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). Over the last few years, she has worked extensively on the various facets of India’s labour market, in particular, in the areas of the informal economy, the impact of technological changes on the world of work, structural transformation of the economy, employment data challenges, performance of the MSME sector, women entrepreneurship and the effect of labour regulations on the manufacturing sector.

She holds a Master’s and PhD in Economics from Cambridge University and the London School of Economics, respectively, following her undergraduate degree in Economics from St Stephen’s College, Delhi University.

Santosh Mehrotra

Santosh Mehrotra is Visiting Professor, Centre for Development Studies, University of Bath, UK, & Higher School of Economics, Moscow. He is ex-Prof (Econ) and Chair of the Centre for Informal Sector and Labour, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

After an MA (Econ) from New School for Social Research, New York, and Phd (Econs), Cambridge University (1985), Santosh spent 15 years with the UN (1991-2006) in research positions, heading UNICEF’s global research programme on social/economic policy at the Innocenti Research Centre, Florence, and as chief economist of the global Human Development Report New York. He returned to India to head the Rural Development Division and Development Policy Division of Planning Commission (2006-09), and was lead author of several chapters of the 11th & 12th Five Year Plans of India, and the India Human Development Report.

He was also the Director General (2009-14) of the National Institute of Labour Economics Research, Planning Commission, in the rank of Secretary to the Government of India. He advises the current NITI, the Ministry of Labour, and the Ministry of Skill Development. His writings have been translated into Hindi, Spanish, French, Russian, German and Portuguese.

Santosh Mehrotra joined IZA as a Research Fellow in August 2021.

All content reflects the individual views of the speakers. The Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) does not hold an institutional view on any subject.

Please contact Gurmeet Kaur at GKaur@csep.org for general queries and Ayesha Manocha at AManocha@csep.org for media queries.