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Disruption Ahead
Optimists uphold that the productive deployment of AI will eventually increase prosperity and well-being universally, as had happened with electricity or telephones.On a Sobering Note
The International Monetary Fund’s deep dive into global trade fragmentation and restrictiveness shows lasting consequences of raised costs, feeding into inflation and weakening growth.A Disconcerting Slowdown: Depressing Consumer Demand Dulls the Shine of...
Private final consumer expenditure (PFCE) growth is estimated tumbling to 4.4% this year from 7.5% in FY23, and one-third its growth rate at the recovery peak in FY22, 11.2%.On a High
It must be noted that the demand signs are not unqualified. Private consumption, the prime driver for fresh business plans and investments, is not as correspondingly upbeat as the moodTax Buoyancy: Too Noisy for Signals
This paper focuses on tax buoyancy, which includes discretionary policy changes, to examine how the historical relationship of tax revenues with income may have been disturbed by exceptional shocks.Then and Now
CSEP Senior Fellow Renu Kohli provides a comparative illustration of the domestic context of the Indian economy then and now to identify critical aspects that could potentially affect the translation of high expectations into actual outcomesReport card
Despite a pandemic, war, higher cost of living and interest rates, economic activity has not stalled or fallen into recession even as inflation continues to decelerate, writes Renu Kohli.Mind the Financing Gap
The total flow of financial resources to the commercial sector, which provides a good grip on the strength of the real economy, is compiled by the central bank.Geopolitical 20
Time will tell if the geopolitically-driven initiatives prove economically sound, resolve the global debt-cum-climate challenges, and help invigorate the world economyNon-Price Policies for Addressing Climate Change: The Global Experience
Renu Kohli, Honey Karun and Saumya analyse the non-price policy measures that aim to lower carbon emissions across the G20 countries.Another Step Back
India’s objective has been to narrow the trade deficit with China by manufacturing at home. The tariff-raising, safeguard duties have explicitly and systematically targeted lower imports.Emerging Inflation Dynamics: The Past Could be a Poor Guide for Future...
In food-price management, factors that could hinder the government’s efforts seem to have been ignored, writes Renu Kohli.Tax Buoyancy: Too Noisy for Signals
Renu Kohli's Discussion Note discusses three significant reasons why the observed tax buoyancy in the recovery year, FY23, must be interpreted with caution.Pressure on the Rupee Recedes
There’s no certainty if RBI will be able to replenish its forex reserve stocks. The process could be quite long drawn, says Renu Kohli.