Publications : All
Topic
Subir Gokarn signs off addressing four broad economic themes
A change in roles means that this will be the last column of this series. Looking back over the almost three years of “Muddy Waters”, I see four broad themes that have taken up much of my attention. I will use this opportunity to reflect on the current state of affairs in ...Leveraging the CSR mandate
Some institutional arrangements that can maximise the collective impact of individual contributions The Companies Act of 2013 mandates a contribution of two per cent of post-tax profits of companies to corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. There was much debate about the merits of this mandate, with critics seeing it as a back-door ...How to make government missions more successful
The recent behaviour of tur dal prices suggests that the National Mission on Protein Supplements set up in 2011-12 has remained largely unsuccessful. Subir Gokarn suggests three components of a budgetary approach that can help increase the prospects of such missions succeeding. Key Highlights: A large mission requires contributions from multiple agencies at all ...Tur travails – Three components of a structural solution to the pain...
There is no better way to understand the spike in the price of tur dal than through simple supply and demand factors. Let’s look at the supply side first. There are three ways to increase the availability of tur, or, for that matter, any commodity: increase the area sown; improve productivity; and, ...Matters of valuation
The government’s multi-pronged approach, labelled Indradhanush, attempts to address a number of structural problems of public sector banks, including asset quality, writes Subir Gokarn. The condition of the Indian banking sector’s balance sheets, more specifically that of the public sector banks, is a serious threat to reviving and sustaining growth. Bad assets ...Subir Gokarn on RBI Monetary Policy review
Brookings India Director of Research and former Deputy Governor of the RBI, Subir Gokarn, answers questions on the RBI Monetary Policy review in Business Standard. Read the full transcript of the webchat here. Is the Reserve Bank of India immune to political and India Inc’s pressure for rate cuts as Governor Raghuram Rajan is suggesting? ...Shaping the Asian financial architecture
A new financial architecture that replicates the Bretton Woods framework is being built in Asia, with China playing a pivotal role. Subir Gokarn identifies opportunities and challenges for this new financial architecture.How Far Can IndraDhanush Go?
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley recently announced the Indradhanush framework – a reform structure for transforming the public sector banks. Subir Gokarn (Director of Research, Brookings India and former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India) spoke to the Swarajya Research Team to find out what he thinks of this new initiative of the government. How ...Narendra Modi’s class act on Teachers’ Day
But the challenge in education lies in enabling teachers to innovate and individualise pedagogy. Key takeaways from the Brookings India publication, Accelerating Access to Education If you would like to request a copy of the book please email us on info@brookingsindia.org In his second address to students around the country, Prime Minister Narendra ...From Pittsburgh to Antalya
The G-20 may have to revert to its crisis management role, but in more complex conditions The G-20 finance ministers and Central Bank governors meeting took place last Friday and Saturday in Ankara, Turkey. The group’s summit meeting will be held in Antalya in mid-November, seven years after the 2008 summit in ...VIDEO: 7% GDP suggests economy not recovering with domestic investments
Subir Gokarn pushes for government reforms in infrastructure and ease of doing business This interview first appeared on ET Now on 31 August 2015. Watch the full video here. The numbers are out – first quarter fiscal gross domestic product (GDP) at 7% and gross value added (GVA) at 7.1%. Do these ...VIDEO Yuan depreciation: India needs to protect domestic producers
Subir Gokarn says our ability to withstand shocks is greater than it was three years ago Watch his full interview on CNBC Awaaz here What is your assessment of the depreciating Chinese currency? Do you foresee currency wars taking place? We saw the Chinese yuan depreciate by about 3% last week and ...VIDEO: To avoid market freeze, central banks have to act
More disruptions in financial and other markets unless central banks take necessary actions to ensure markets do not freeze Watch the full interview on CNBC here What is your own assessment of how this core problem of slow growth can be resolved because you can inject liquidity how much ever you want but ...Chinese tremors
China’s path to global economic leadership is bound to be marked by episodes of turbulence Recent developments in the Chinese financial sector have raised concerns globally about another looming crisis. Fears about a currency war have been expressed and equity markets in both emerging and developed economies have plunged. These views are ...Health care – how, where & how much?
In my previous column, I wrote about some patterns emerging from the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO’s) household survey on expenditure on education. The same round also queried expenditure on health by households. This column explores some findings from the 71st Round survey of social expenditures by households, carried out between January ...Educational reach and grasp
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on July 26, 2015. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Over the past few weeks, new data releases have provided a wealth of information about ...Profiling and targeting
Big data provides both companies and governments the ability to differentiate sharply and productively between customers and beneficiaries of welfare programmes. Used effectively, organisations delivering products and services can leverage large databases about customers/beneficiaries to combine economies of scale with the benefits of precision targeting. Further, since data about the target group ...Key Policy Insights
Quality Focus on Learning Outcomes: There is an unequivocal need for the education system to shift its focus from access and infrastructure to improving learning outcomes for all students in the country. While some basic standards for infrastructure are needed, greater priority should be given to learning outcomes in the school ...The one-year scorecard
As the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government approaches its first anniversary, the assessments have ranged from congratulatory to critical, depending on the observer and the criterion. Here is my contribution to the kitty. A year ago, I had written a column entitled “Three national missions”, in which I had argued that the ...Re-starting infrastructure
While the government has taken several steps in the right direction, these measures do not add up to a credible strategy to re-start infrastructure. Building up on action already taken, a strategy needs to be formulated around three dimensions. The Background For the past couple of years, there has been widespread and ...Rainfall and the economy
The first forecast for the south-west monsoon this year caused concern. It projected aggregate rainfall during the June-September period to be 93 per cent of normal, somewhat below the conventional range of 96-104 per cent. This projection would not have attracted much attention, but it comes after a succession of rain-related problems. ...The great oil circle
Oil prices have played a huge part in global economicdynamics over the past several years. They rose sharply in the couple of years leading up to the financial crisis of 2008. They crashed during the crisis, but recovered quite quickly. In late 2010, they surged past the $100-a-barrel mark and, with a few, ...Having your cake…
We are told early in life that we cannot both have our cake and eat it, too. Of course, this is taught to us before we take our first economics course. There, we are introduced to the “production possibility frontier”, which traces the combination of goods that an economy can produce when ...Trysts with e-governance
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on February 8, 2015. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Soon after we moved to Mumbai a few years ago, we were informed that our ...The Bilateral Imperative
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on January 25, 2015. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. During the five-year period 2003-08, even as the world economy was barrelling along, three countries ...Intellectual Property Rights: Signs of Convergence
The Pre-Summit Backdrop Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) have been among the most contentious economic issues in the bilateral relationship between India and the United States. For several years, the U.S. has claimed that the Indian regulatory regime has been both weak and inadequately enforced. In a number of IPR domains, the contention ...Greek tragedy – Act II?
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on January 11, 2015. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Developments in Europe have dominated the headlines over the past couple of weeks, and not ...Tipping points and Goldilocks conditions
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on December 28, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Many, if not most, observers of the Indian economy see 2015 as a year of ...Enjoying the capital flows ride
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on December 13, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the authors. The last 10 years have been a roller coaster ride of sorts for emerging market ...The Main Thing…
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on December 14, 2014 . Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Many years ago, at an offsite that I participated in, I heard a message ...Turning Water Challenges into Opportunities
Water is vital in South Asia, where most countries are still largely agrarian. As such, water is inherently political – its socio-ecological flows are implicated in competition by economies, individuals and nations, while its distributional regimes have the capacity to alter lives and livelihoods. Competing water-use for agriculture, industry, and domestic purposes ...Can our banks finance the economic recovery?
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on November 16, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. There is little question now that the Indian economyis steadily climbing up from the bottom. ...You can’t kill two birds …
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on November 2, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. The economic parallel of the popular aphorism about the limitations of using one stone is ...The three components of livelihood security: jobs, skills and safety nets
(Remarks made in the ASSOCHAM Livelihoods Security Summit on November 3, 2014) Let me begin by expressing my appreciation for ASSOCHAM’s initiatives in furthering debate and understanding on the very critical issue of livelihoods. The theme for this seminar addresses a very important aspect of an overall strategy, i.e. security. Secure livelihoods ...A five-year baseline scenario
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on October 20, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. At the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month, headlines ...A capital ladder for infrastructure
This column first appeared in the Business Standard, on October 5, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the authors. A look at how businesses have traversed the path between start-up and the stock market ...Intellectual Property Rights: An eminent domain approach for India and the...
Intellectual property rights (IPR) are a significant point of contention between India and the United States. India is on the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) IPR priority watch list, indicated in the Special 301 Report for 2014, which signals heightened scrutiny and, from India’s perspective, the threat of sanctions. The ...Global Silver Linings
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on September 21, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. When the G20 finance ministers and central-bank heads met in South Korea in late 2010, the United States ...The inclusion triangle
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on September 7, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. A triangle is symbolically important because it is the smallest number of lines needed ...Strategy and structure
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on August 24, 2014. Like all products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. The title of this column is borrowed from a classic work in business history, ...The SLR Barrier
In last week’s bi-monthly review of monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) from 22.5 per cent to 22 per cent of net demand and time liabilities. Many perceived this as a kind of back-door easing, because it allowed banks some more space to expand ...Explaining Expectations
Contemporary monetary policy is based on two fundamental premises. One, when inflation is above an acceptable level because of demand-side pressures, policy has to work to contract demand to bring it down. Two, if inflationary expectations are high and/or if there is risk of them rising, policy has to work towards moderating and stabilising them at low levels.In ...Demanding to be included
In the 1977 film, Annie Hall, Woody Allen opens with two jokes that, he says, best reflect his attitude towards relationships. The first, which he attributes to Sigmund Freudvia Groucho Marx, is that he would never want to belong to any club that would have him as a member. The second is about two guests eating lunch ...Nudges and Pushes
I think that cricket provides great metaphors for virtually everything in life. Thursday’s Budget certainly lends itself to cricketing references. Not for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley the six sixes in an over kind of thriller; more the nudging and pushing, singles and twos kind of innings that doesn’t keep you enthralled, but ...Modi’s twin challenge- Oil and water
They say that oil and water don’t mix. Literally true, perhaps, but, speaking metaphorically, they can be an explosive combination. The mix between the two poses the most significant risk to the Indian economy over the next few months. It threatens to reignite the drivers of inflation, the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit. At this ...A potential jobs breakthrough
The announcement by the Rajasthan government that it would amend the state’s labour laws to give employers in the manufacturing sector the flexibility to lay off workers without prior government approval is an extremely significant development. The plan is to raise the ceiling under which such approval is not needed from 100 workers to 300. This ...Five fiscal fixes
High on the government’s priorities should be to gain control over the fiscal situation. Between the Budget for 2014-15 to be presented next month and the one for 2015-16 in February, every opportunity to deal with both short-term and structural fiscal problems must be taken. Here is a list of five issues ...Three national missions on priority for the Modi government
**This column first appeared in the Business Standard, on May 19, 2014. All views are personal. Brookings India does not hold an institutional view on any subject. The mandate received by the new government gives it an opportunity to set a long-term agenda without political threats. This is exactly what any government ...Walking the line between demographic dividend and disaster
The dominant factor that will determine whether India evolves into a middle-income nation over the next few decades is the country’s ability to generate massive numbers of jobs. As is well known, India is now in a potentially virtuous phase of its demographic transition. The working age (15-60) segment of the population ...The NIF Option
Over the past few months, I have written several columns about the chronic and intensifying problems in infrastructure. To my mind, two issues are of particular concern. First, there is a severe imbalance between investments across sectors, which lowers the productivity of each investment. Infrastructure is essentially a network phenomenon, a chain, ...Thirsty, hungry and sick
The second volume of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report was published on March 31. This volume is titled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. It aggregates the current state of knowledge at both global and regional levels on how ecosystems are responding to climate change and what the larger ...Bang for the Buck
Capital efficiency is a critical determinant of how companies perform. Return on capital employed, which measures the surplus available to the providers of capital to the business, is a useful summary measure of this. Managements are judged by shareholders to have failed in strategy and execution when this measure declines. There are three broad sets ...Slippery Slope for Infrastructure
By now, all of us are used to global rankings of various kinds placing India close to the bottom of a large set of countries. Whether it is ease of doing business or corruption or transparency or human development or infrastructure quality, whenever a new ranking is announced, one instinctively begins searching ...Realigning governance
In its essence, governance is about alignment. Multiple groups, each with its own menu of interests, some coherently articulated and others not, demand recognition and satisfaction from the government. Areas of commonality need to be found and reinforced, while differences need to be reconciled, not by the domination of one group over ...A national agenda – hopefully!
Frankly, I think we spend too much time and effort analysing the numbers presented by the interim Budget. At its core, the process simply involves obtaining parliamentary approval for the government to continue spending money on activities that are ongoing – from the routine to the priority and flagship programmes of the ...The alpha male syndrome
Behaviour traits of primates can be positive or negative for governance The institution of the alpha male is common to several species, including virtually all primates. At any given time, one male dominates the group, which, among other things, gives him the exclusive right to reproduce. When an incumbent alpha shows signs of weakening, ...BHAG inclusion BHAG
The goals for financial inclusion need to be matched by the means being used In their book Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (1994), James Collins and Jerry Porras postulated that an important characteristic of such companies was their articulation of their Big Hairy Audacious Goal, or BHAG. In contrast ...Finance and Sustainability: Regulatory and Strategic Dimensions
The 30th Annual Sir Purshotamdas Thakurdas Memorial Lecture CONTENTS: Introduction Sustainability Framework Sustainability and Financial Performance Regulatory and Strategic Dimensions Concluding Thoughts Good Evening. It is my great privilege to be delivering the 30th Sir Purshotamdas Thakurdas Memorial Lecture. I follow a long list of very eminent people, who have, by ...Energy 2030: Backgrounder
This backgrounder – prepared for the Petrotech 2014 CEO Conclave held in New Delhi, on December 17, 2013 – looks at the dynamics of energy demand and supply in 2030, the implications of geopolitical stress on energy trade, and provides a framework for a sustainable energy agenda in 2030. Key Insights: ...The state of the state
Whether the state, as an institution, is doing the right things and has the capacity to do them are fundamental questions in a liberal democracy. As India approaches the next general election, these are particularly significant questions. However, the articulation is as yet fuzzy and needs to get sharper if it is to translate into ...An evolving multilateralism
The global economy can be viewed as a rather complex balancing act between forces of integration and those of autarchy. In many domains – trade, development and macroeconomic stability are the obvious examples – the emergence of multilateral institutions as critical players in the process of integration reflects the strength of this ...Slow burn
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is in the process of putting out its fifth series of assessment reports. There are three components in this series. The report on the first component – science – was released at the end of September. The other two – impacts and mitigation – will be ...Infra bottlenecks will dilute potential benefits of weak rupee: Subir...
Subir Gokarn: The earlier assessment was made at a time when the rupee had not depreciated. It is obviously showing signs of stability, importantly because of the announcement by the FED and the expectation that liquidity levels will continue to remain buoyant in the global economy. However, the depreciation over the last ...Public sector – Act V?
Act I: Idealism Beginning with the second Five-Year Plan in 1956, public enterprise was given a central role in the industrial development strategy for the economy. At that point, the perception that very large upstream investments, which would lay the foundations for comprehensive industrialisation, were best done by the state was quite ...Taper tribulations
When the United States Federal Reserve began what turned out to be a series of quantitative easing (QE) measures in October 2008, most observers would have seen it as a temporary crisis response measure, to be withdrawn as soon as it had done its job of calming markets and thawing out a ...“Un prêt du FMI est certainement une option” pour l’Inde
Subir Gokarn était le gouverneur adjoint de la banque centrale indienne entre 2009 et 2012. Il est aujourd’hui directeur de la recherche du groupe de réflexion Brookings India. Il évoque la crise des changes qui frappe son pays et qui s’aggrave avec l’hémorragie des capitaux. Comment analysez-vous la dépréciation de la roupie ...Fighting without fighting
A film that I still remember from my teenage years is the Bruce Lee classic, Enter the Dragon. In the film, when the group of contestants is travelling to the island for the tournament, Lee is asked by a rather aggressive competitor, Parsons, about his martial arts style. He responds that his ...