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Sri Lanka & Bangladesh Look East
The shifting sands of the South Asian trade landscape may be worthy of some serious reflection for India’s regional trade strategy.Is Cutting UK Taxes Ahead of a General Election Affordable or Not? An...
The possibility of tax cuts in the upcoming budget is being speculated widely in the UK. But can the British economy afford them?Ukraine War, Gaza Conflict and Middle East Strikes: It’s Time Businesses...
Vikram Singh Mehta advises businesses to integrate scenario planning into risk management processes to tackle political risk in an increasingly uncertain global context with upcoming elections in several countries.Decoding India’s FTA Journey: What does the Future Hold?
As the global trade policy has moved away from World Trade Organisation (WTO) led multilateralism, towards Regional Trade Agreements, this blog tries to understand the evolution of India’s Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) strategy.The Importance of ASEAN for India
The evolving regional trade context should be the primary guiding factor for the AITIGA review.Interview | Should India-Pakistan Trade Resume?
Sanjay Kathuria discusses obstacles hindering India-Pakistan trade and explores insights on sensitive lists, solar partnerships, and a USD 37 billion trade potential.A Disconcerting Slowdown: Depressing Consumer Demand Dulls the Shine of...
Private final consumer expenditure (PFCE) growth is estimated tumbling to 4.4% this year from 7.5% in FY23, and one-third its growth rate at the recovery peak in FY22, 11.2%.Podcast | Trade Ties: Exploring South Asia’s Evolving Geopolitical...
Sanjay Kathuria discusses how the geopolitical competition in South Asia is influencing trade relations and policies of the states engaged in the region.Ensuring the Credibility of India’s GDP Estimates
Two pressing issues have reignited the debate about the credibility of India’s GDP growth rate.Interview | A GDP Growth Rate of 7.5% for the Next 10 years is Feasible...
Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former Deputy Chairman of the erstwhile Planning Commission says India needs a better export strategy to take advantage of the shift in global demand away from China.On a High
It must be noted that the demand signs are not unqualified. Private consumption, the prime driver for fresh business plans and investments, is not as correspondingly upbeat as the moodNew Creditors, Differing Interests and Coordination Issues are Hobbling...
An IMF analysis suggests that several low-income countries (LICs) have been at high risk of debt distress or are in debt distress. Between 2010 and 2022, interest payments on both domestic and external debt of developing countries increased by 64%, and of African countries by 132%.Assessing the Impact of CBAM on EITE Industries in India
This research specifically focuses on the uncertainties surrounding the potential impact of CBAM on trade-exposed sectors with high energy intensity, particularly in developing countries like India.Interview | Unlocking Africa’s Job Creation Potential: Insights from...
The interview provides valuable insights into the complexities of the African job market and potential pathways to overcome its challenges.Rekindling Corporate Investment
To achieve the levels seen in 2008, it is essential to increase corporate productivity, write Shishir Gupta and Rishita Sachdeva.Interview | Is India the Next Big Economic Power?
A happy convergence of circumstances and trends have created a perfect launchpad for India’s global economic ambitions. Unless there are some unexpected surprises, this trajectory, already underway, will fundamentally transform India.Nepal-India Transit Trade Ties Can Unlock Economic Opportunities,...
Nepal and India have renewed their transit trade agreement, improving Nepal's access to Indian sea ports and inland waterways, boosting supply chain resilience. This also marks potential breakthroughs in cross-border electricity trade and digital payments.Interview | Montek Singh Ahluwalia on G-20
Montek Singh Ahluwalia discusses India's G-20 meeting with ANI News.Trade: A Call to Action for Rapid Growth
For India to attain high-income status by 2047, it must urgently prioritise trade as the primary driver for achieving accelerated growth.Interview | Share Bazaar RBI Policy के बाद गिरा!
Janak Raj on RBI Monetary PolicyInterview | Tech Import Curb Regressive, Doesn’t Augur Well for Future
We have to be connected to the Asian supply chain for us to be competitive in manufacturing of laptops, desktops, tablets and other computer equipment. That is what we need to do rather than shutting them off.Interview | Laveesh Bhandari on Manufacturing Competitiveness
Post-1991 reforms did not achieve intended results, manufacturing competitiveness still a challenge, says Laveesh Bhandari.Why India Needs to Look Beyond Logistics to Improve its Manufacturing...
The government's intent is sensible, and infrastructure does seem to have improved over time. India jumped six places from 44 (2018) to 38 (2023) in the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI). However, there are two main fallacies in the argument that puts disproportionate importance on logistics cost as a key reason ...Locate the Many Indias
Do not presume the business models that have worked for you elsewhere will be successful in India: Vikram Singh Mehta to potential investors.We Must Incentivise Household Savings for a Fast Economic Growth
Shishir Gupta and Rishista Sachdeva suggest the need to push for household savings to acheive accelerated growth on a sustained basis.Our New Trade Policy Must Calm Fears of Rising Import Restrictions
Trade restrictions may put FTAs and global value chain integration at risk; external imbalances can be addressed with other tools, says Montek Singh Ahluwalia.India Should Adopt Flexible, Interest Based Negotiations, Not Oppose Trade...
If India wants to achieve a growth rate of 7%-plus in the years ahead, it should also aim for a strong export performance. World trade is likely to grow more slowly in the future than it did in the past. But, even so, India should aim at expanding its exports at rates ...India’s New Growth Recipe: Larger Firms
Large Indian firms are yet to become global champions. Given the global headwinds, India should focus on improving the competitiveness of these companies so that they can tap into large external markets far more than they have managed so far, say Shishir Gupta and Rishita Sachdeva.View: A more Competitive India Inc can Grow Faster and Bigger, and Capture...
There are, indeed, some green shoots visible, especially on the corporate and export front, which may help accelerate growth in the short run. However, transforming this head-start into faster long-term growth requires an improvement in competitiveness.India’s New Growth Recipe: Globally Competitive Large Firms
Shishir Gupta and Rishita Sachdeva analyse growth performance over a period of 26 years to understand the drivers behind India's economic growth.Bank Credit Risk and Macro-prudential Policies: Role of Counter-cyclical...
This paper investigates the impact of counter-cyclical capital Buffer (CCyB) as a macro-prudential policy, on bank credit risk, during uncertain times, as banking sector stability is crucial in promoting financial intermediation.‘A seed nurtured half a world away’ — What do Utah farms have to do...
UVU’s upcoming conference, “Why it Matters” connects the United Nations with the farmsteads of Utah.The key to economic recovery that will spur private investment to pick up
Infrastructure created through programmes such as PM Gati Shakti and the production-linked incentive scheme will allow private investment to pick up gradually, write Ayush Khare, Divya Srinivasan and Rishita Sachdeva in The Economic Times.How US Demand Helped Expand Labour-intensive Manufacturing
Understanding the US-India trade composition is also important, as the US is the only big trading partner with which we have a trade surplus, says Abhishek Kumar and Divya Srinivasan.India’s Start-ups are on Fire, but Unicorns can’t Automatically Spur...
Economic miracles only happen when globally competitive firms tap into external demand, says Shishir Gupta.The Trade Policy India Needs
Integration with global value chains will require a rethink of our high and uncertain tariffs as well as bolder trade alliances, say Montek Singh Ahluwalia.FTA with the UK can Weave Magic
An FTA with the UK can help recover ground lost to Bangladesh on textile exports because of its LDC status, say Abhishek Kumar and Divya Srinivasan.Free Trade Agreements are Leading to More Imports Than Exports | Interview
Montek Singh Ahluwalia discusses Atmanirbhar Bharat, Russia - Ukraine crises and many more in an interview with the New Indian Express.Union Budget 2022-23: Key Takeaways by CSEP Scholars
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2022-23 on February 1. CSEP scholars Rakesh Mohan, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Vikram Singh Mehta, and Jaimini Bhagwati analyse the Budget and reflect on some of the key takeaways.Enough of the Old ‘Level Playing Field’ Argument. Reduce Trade...
Data from the IMF's October 2021 World Economic Outlook reveals that India's real exports growth moves in tandem with the growth in global real exports. Consequently, the steep decline in India's export growth since 2018 onwards is mirrored by a decline in global export growth in general.Interview: How the 1991 reforms were announced
30 years ago on July 24 1991, Dr Manmohan Singh presented his historic budget when India made a definite break with the past.The US must play champion of open world trade again
Among the needed reforms is a trade agenda that removes US President Joe Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump’s protectionist measuresA third-generation strategy for accelerated growth and development
Indian economy is in trouble once again and it is time to usher in a third generation of economic reforms.America’s economic resurgence and the sting in its tail
The surprisingly strong recovery in the US, whose economic expansion is outpacing the world’s as well as that of emerging marketsInterview | India’s 1991 liberalisation leap and lessons for today
The reforms were hugely successful but a lot remains to be done, Montek Singh Ahluwalia tells The HinduThe lessons of India’s economic reforms of 1991
Rakesh Mohan and and Montek Singh Ahluwalia on 30 years of the economic reforms that marked a turning point for IndiaIndia needs a third generation of reforms
In India’s development journey, two major policy departures in its approach to growth stand out. It is time for a third departure.The 1991 reforms: The right people at a tight time
The reforms were a product of an objective economic crisis, bureaucratic talent in key positions, and a plan on how to proceedFrom 1991, the lessons for the India of 2021
As India grapples with a post-pandemic economic crisis, there are lessons from thirty years ago on what to reform and how.Rajiv Gandhi opened the doors for 1991 reforms
Thirty years after he passed away, it is relevant to reflect on Rajiv Gandhi’s contribution to India’s economic reforms.A third-generation strategy for accelerated growth and development in...
The third generation of economic reforms must direct attention to improving the government’s own competence, at all levels.Sustainable and inclusive growth in South Asia
On November 4, 2019, Brookings India hosted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a panel discussion around reforms based on inclusive and sustainable growth in South Asia with a particular focus on India. The IMF paper, titled “Is South Asia Ready for Take Off? A Sustainable and Inclusive Growth Agenda“, was presented ...Moving India to a new growth trajectory: Need for a comprehensive big push
The paper discusses the need to focus attention on the primacy of growth as a policy objective, to eliminate poverty and achieve upper-middle income status.The debate over jobs in India is missing the point
As nearly a billion Indians go to the polls this month and next, no one doubts jobs will be central to their vote. We just can’t agree on whether the employment picture is rosy or dark. While the government cites payroll data to claim significant job creation, the opposition holds up a leaked preliminary ...Preserving the independence of the RBI
If proposals to set up an appellate body to review RBI’s regulatory and supervisory decisions were to be implemented, the whole supervisory process would get mired in constant litigation. The last decade has witnessed an almost constant attack on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), emanating sometimes from within the government, sometimes ...Product space analysis and industrial policy: Identifying potential...
This paper explains the basic concepts of product space analysis and works with the data provided by the Atlas of Economic Complexity that reflect these concepts, i.e. ease of moving into production and export of another “nearby product”, the consecutive chain of domestic capabilities that can be developed by moving into a ...India’s model bilateral investment treaty: Are we too risk averse?
India’s decision to adopt a new Model Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) especially in light of the growing debate on how to reconcile investment protection with host state’s right to regulate should be welcomed. After foreign investors sued India under different BITs, India realised that broad and vague investment protection standards can be ...Indian monetary policy in the time of inflation targeting and...
This paper provides a narrative of Indian monetary policy since the North Atlantic Financial Crisis (NAFC) in the mid-2008 till the current period. The period 2009-13 was dominated by the joint monetary and fiscal stimuli of the Indian authorities prompted by the NAFC. These, along with some structural shocks and a hands-off ...Manufacturing jobs: Implications for productivity and inequality
Declining shares of manufacturing jobs in overall employment have been a concern for policymakers for years in advanced and some developing economies. This concern stems from the widely held belief that manufacturing plays a unique role as a catalyst for productivity growth and income convergence and a source of well-paid jobs for ...Is inflation dead? Development Seminar challenges conventional wisdom on...
Inflation in the U.S. has averaged 1.9 per cent between 1996 and 2009 while mean inflation rate in 21 advanced economies (AE), excluding the U.S., has averaged some 25 basis points lower than that. During a Brookings India Development Seminar, Surjit Bhalla, member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and Chairman, ...WTO and food stock holding row: Why India must strengthen world body
WTO’s 11th Ministerial Meeting ended on December 13 in Argentina, without any negotiated agreement on substantive issues. The Ministerial Decisions taken are on continuing work in certain areas, and renewal of two previously agreed Decisions which have been reiterated every Ministerial meeting. The negotiations on agriculture, including food stockholding, were blocked by ...World Bank’s league table: India makes it to the top 100 nation for...
Pop the champagne and pass the mithai for it is, indeed, the epoch of belief, the season of light in the world’s largest democracy. After languishing in the World Bank’s league tables, India is, finally, getting its due: It has been admitted to the top 100 nation club for Ease of Doing ...Demonetisation: A year after India killed cash, here’s what we can...
Almost a year ago, the Indian government rolled out an unprecedented policy move. Arguably, it was a time when the country was poised for economic success. With $9.49 trillion in purchasing power parity, it was the third-largest (in PPP terms) and the fastest-growing large economy in the world. On November 8, with ...Putting industrial policy experience to use
The department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) has released a substantive discussion paper on industrial policy which identifies several key policy aspects, constraints on industrial growth, and a range of objectives and policy targets. The paper provides a basis for the government’s consultations to “formulate an outcome-oriented actionable industrial policy that ...TPPs for success: Here is how India can use this gamechanger agreement
Three years ago, when the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) was seen as a game-changer in the evolving international trade regulatory regime, there was some discussion in India on whether the country should join TPP. Given the prevailing political constraints, it was evident that India would find it difficult to accept a number ...TPP and India: Lessons for Future Gains
Until 2015, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) was seen as a game-changer in the evolving international trade regulatory regime. It was evident, as expressed by India’s Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020, that it would not be possible for the country to accept the emerging agreement. The future of TPP is now uncertain, with ...Better data needed on job scenario
“There are lies, damned lies, and statistics,” the 19th century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli famously said. Today, his description of questionable data may be applied, somewhat facetiously, to Indian labour statistics. The problem is not that they are “fake”, but rather that they give only a partial and sometimes inaccurate view ...If Trump, Modi talk climate
As is now well known, President Donald Trump has fulfilled his promise to pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement. This “Trexit” had all the hallmarks of a scorched earth strategy. Trump bashed not only the agreement, calling it “less about the climate and more about other countries gaining a ...The art of curry diplomacy
Infosys plans to curry favour with the Donald Trump administration with a promise of creating 10,000 new American jobs. We should note that the first of four “Technology and Innovation Hubs” promised by Infosys will be in Indiana. No doubt, this is designed to charm Vice President Mike Pence by bringing tech ...Working Paper: Trade Policy Reform in India Since 1991
SUMMARY: This paper discusses India’s trade policy reform since 1991, providing quantitative information and qualitative insights regarding the evolution of trade policy in the past 25 years. The Finance Minister in his 1991 Union Budget speech explicitly stated that trade policy reform was an important part of the economic reform initiated by ...Demonetisation: Effect on interest rates, inflation and policy action
Dr. Shamika Ravi (Senior Fellow, Brookings India) and Dr. Eswar Prasad (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution) participated in a debate about the demonetisation issue in India. Dr. Ravi responded to comments on inflation and interest rates: There is a problem of an information void within which estimates are being made, including the government ...Shamika Ravi on implications on govt’s demonetisation move
Speaking about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement to demonitise Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes, Senior Fellow Shamika Ravi in this Facebook Live says the next few months will be painful, and should be seen as teething troubles for an economy trying hard to reform its corrupt self. As an economy we should aim ...Demonetization is a net positive move
Scaling back large bills will not end crime, but it will force the underground economy to employ riskier methods In a special broadcast on 8 November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a positive exogenous shock to the country. He declared that in less than four hours, Rs500 and Rs1,000 bills would be ...Over the barrel: A swadeshi index
World Bank rankings on ease of doing business ignore the complexity of the Indian landscape. An indigenous framework is needed. WAS IT A mistake for the prime minister to set his government the target of improving India’s rank order in the World Bank’s “ease of doing business” index from 131 to 50 ...Indian economy set to soar irrespective of PM Narendra Modi’s...
The caveats are many. But there are compelling reasons to believe that the economy will slowly but surely pick up momentum writes Vikram Mehta There have been a spate of meetings to discuss two years of the Modi government and I have attended several of them. One question that has been asked ...How Make in India can be bad news for trade deal with Australia
Brookings India Chairman Vikram S Mehta explains the reason for tensions over India’s trade and manufacturing policy. In a story in the Australian Financial Review on why Australia’s prospects of negotiating a trade agreement with India are being threatened by differences within the Indian government over how to implement Make in India, ...Marginal revolutions from Budget 2016
There are numerous small announcements in finance minister Arun Jaitley’s budget that must be lauded comments Shamika Ravi Most television channels track the stock market as the finance minister’s budget speech unfolds in Parliament. This is done to capture the announcement effects from the speech. Yet, it also reflects the gross mistake ...Subir Gokarn signs off addressing four broad economic themes
A change in roles means that this will be the last column of this series. Looking back over the almost three years of “Muddy Waters”, I see four broad themes that have taken up much of my attention. I will use this opportunity to reflect on the current state of affairs in ...VIDEO: 7% GDP suggests economy not recovering with domestic investments
Subir Gokarn pushes for government reforms in infrastructure and ease of doing business This interview first appeared on ET Now on 31 August 2015. Watch the full video here. The numbers are out – first quarter fiscal gross domestic product (GDP) at 7% and gross value added (GVA) at 7.1%. Do these ...VIDEO Yuan depreciation: India needs to protect domestic producers
Subir Gokarn says our ability to withstand shocks is greater than it was three years ago Watch his full interview on CNBC Awaaz here What is your assessment of the depreciating Chinese currency? Do you foresee currency wars taking place? We saw the Chinese yuan depreciate by about 3% last week and ...Re-starting infrastructure
While the government has taken several steps in the right direction, these measures do not add up to a credible strategy to re-start infrastructure. Building up on action already taken, a strategy needs to be formulated around three dimensions. The Background For the past couple of years, there has been widespread and ...Rainfall and the economy
The first forecast for the south-west monsoon this year caused concern. It projected aggregate rainfall during the June-September period to be 93 per cent of normal, somewhat below the conventional range of 96-104 per cent. This projection would not have attracted much attention, but it comes after a succession of rain-related problems. ...The great oil circle
Oil prices have played a huge part in global economicdynamics over the past several years. They rose sharply in the couple of years leading up to the financial crisis of 2008. They crashed during the crisis, but recovered quite quickly. In late 2010, they surged past the $100-a-barrel mark and, with a few, ...Having your cake…
We are told early in life that we cannot both have our cake and eat it, too. Of course, this is taught to us before we take our first economics course. There, we are introduced to the “production possibility frontier”, which traces the combination of goods that an economy can produce when ...Tipping points and Goldilocks conditions
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on December 28, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Many, if not most, observers of the Indian economy see 2015 as a year of ...Enjoying the capital flows ride
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on December 13, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the authors. The last 10 years have been a roller coaster ride of sorts for emerging market ...The Main Thing…
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on December 14, 2014 . Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. Many years ago, at an offsite that I participated in, I heard a message ...A five-year baseline scenario
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on October 20, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are those of the author. At the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month, headlines ...Global Silver Linings
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on September 21, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. When the G20 finance ministers and central-bank heads met in South Korea in late 2010, the United States ...Explaining Expectations
Contemporary monetary policy is based on two fundamental premises. One, when inflation is above an acceptable level because of demand-side pressures, policy has to work to contract demand to bring it down. Two, if inflationary expectations are high and/or if there is risk of them rising, policy has to work towards moderating and stabilising them at low levels.In ...Five fiscal fixes
High on the government’s priorities should be to gain control over the fiscal situation. Between the Budget for 2014-15 to be presented next month and the one for 2015-16 in February, every opportunity to deal with both short-term and structural fiscal problems must be taken. Here is a list of five issues ...Walking the line between demographic dividend and disaster
The dominant factor that will determine whether India evolves into a middle-income nation over the next few decades is the country’s ability to generate massive numbers of jobs. As is well known, India is now in a potentially virtuous phase of its demographic transition. The working age (15-60) segment of the population ...Thirsty, hungry and sick
The second volume of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report was published on March 31. This volume is titled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. It aggregates the current state of knowledge at both global and regional levels on how ecosystems are responding to climate change and what the larger ...Bang for the Buck
Capital efficiency is a critical determinant of how companies perform. Return on capital employed, which measures the surplus available to the providers of capital to the business, is a useful summary measure of this. Managements are judged by shareholders to have failed in strategy and execution when this measure declines. There are three broad sets ...A national agenda – hopefully!
Frankly, I think we spend too much time and effort analysing the numbers presented by the interim Budget. At its core, the process simply involves obtaining parliamentary approval for the government to continue spending money on activities that are ongoing – from the routine to the priority and flagship programmes of the ...Infra bottlenecks will dilute potential benefits of weak rupee: Subir...
Subir Gokarn: The earlier assessment was made at a time when the rupee had not depreciated. It is obviously showing signs of stability, importantly because of the announcement by the FED and the expectation that liquidity levels will continue to remain buoyant in the global economy. However, the depreciation over the last ...Dimming of brand India
We have messed up the present. Can we still recover the future? We are in the midst of a severe economic crisis. Our macroeconomic indices are weakening. The first quarter growth figure has come in at 4.4 per cent and some analysts are projecting a figure for FY 2013-14 of below 4 ...