Publications : Opinion & Commentary
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Energy: A Solid Pillar upon which to Build India-U.S. Relations
In this India-U.S. Policy Memo, Vikram Singh Mehta emphasizes the importance of energy as a solid pillar for building and consolidating India-U.S. relations and identifies three ways in which the two countries can cooperate further.Global Silver Linings
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on September 21, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. When the G20 finance ministers and central-bank heads met in South Korea in late 2010, the United States ...Making it work
The MGNREGS stands out as one of the Indian government’s most ambitious social schemes, with far-reaching consequences throughout the economy. The only known recipe for poverty eradication is a combination of high growth and high development spending. Neither is sufficient. A recent study (Kapoor and Ahluwalia, 2012) has shown that post-liberalisation, one ...The merits of going nuclear with China
This column first appeared in Mint, on September 15, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. The maiden visit of Chinese President Xi Jingping to India this week, following close on ...The inclusion triangle
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on September 7, 2014. Like other products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. A triangle is symbolically important because it is the smallest number of lines needed ...Lessons not to emulate from Japan
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s maiden visit to Japan coincides with his 100 days in office and underlines his foreign policy emphasis on deeds (particularly deliverables) rather than words or highfalutin rhetoric (without concrete results). Predictably then the focus of the Japan trip has been on specific deliverables in trade, investment, energy and ...Good governance 101
The prime minister has hoisted his administration’s flag on the masthead of good governance. This is a welcome and timely objective. The question is, what does the prime minister mean by “good”? He campaigned on the slogan of “minimum government, maximum governance”. This would suggest that he equates “good” with “small”. There ...For new ideas, a clean break with the past
The Planning Commission is neither a constitutional nor a statutory body, but over the years it has acquired tremendous power of distant planning which is unsuitable to a country as diverse and complex as India. Let us neither reinvent nor restructure such a body. Let us, instead, make a clean break and ...Strategy and structure
This column first appeared in Business Standard, on August 24, 2014. Like all products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. The title of this column is borrowed from a classic work in business history, ...Why plumbing in India starts leaking in a few months while it lasts...
This column first appeared in Quartz, on August 10, 2014. Like all products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. Indians are proud of their frugality. Saving money is normally a virtue, but in some ...A brave new nuclear deterrence world?
Since the dawn of nuclear weapons in 1945 two axioms have dominated the discourse: one, only nuclear weapons could deter other nuclear weapons. Two, as conventional conflict would inevitably escalate to a nuclear level the primary objective of the military in nuclear-armed states was to avert wars. Thus, Cold War relations were ...The SLR Barrier
In last week’s bi-monthly review of monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) from 22.5 per cent to 22 per cent of net demand and time liabilities. Many perceived this as a kind of back-door easing, because it allowed banks some more space to expand ...A story of the clean energy fund
The finance minister announced in his budget speech that he would enhance the resources of the “clean energy fund” by doubling the cess on coal production from Rs 50 per tonne to Rs 100 per tonne. This fund was set up in 2000 to incubate, encourage and develop innovation in clean energy. ...A transformative India-US dialogue?
This column first appeared in Mint, on August 4, 2014. Like all products of the Brookings Institution India Center, this is intended to contribute to discussion and stimulate debate on important issues. The views are solely those of the author. Opinion on the recently concluded fifth India-US strategic dialogue ranged from it being a dramatic “transformative ...Explaining Expectations
Contemporary monetary policy is based on two fundamental premises. One, when inflation is above an acceptable level because of demand-side pressures, policy has to work to contract demand to bring it down. Two, if inflationary expectations are high and/or if there is risk of them rising, policy has to work towards moderating and stabilising them at low levels.In ...Just another set of BRICS in the wall?
There is supreme irony that the genesis of the self-consciously anti-western BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) grouping came from the most evocative symbol of the western liberal economic world the head of an investment bank’s asset management unit, Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs. This underlies, on the one hand, ...Just Another Set of BRICS in the Wall ?
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu outlines how due to inherent contradictions within the group and open competition between China and India, BRICS might not be the ideal vehicle for the five countries to become part of and shape the emerging world order.
Missing women leaders
Women constitute a quarter of Narendra Modi’s cabinet, even though they make up only a little over 11 per cent of the 16th Lok Sabha. This is significant, even internationally. In South America, for instance, women hold the same proportion of Cabinet positions, but the proportion of women in the lower houses ...Demanding to be included
In the 1977 film, Annie Hall, Woody Allen opens with two jokes that, he says, best reflect his attitude towards relationships. The first, which he attributes to Sigmund Freudvia Groucho Marx, is that he would never want to belong to any club that would have him as a member. The second is about two guests eating lunch ...Nudges and Pushes
I think that cricket provides great metaphors for virtually everything in life. Thursday’s Budget certainly lends itself to cricketing references. Not for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley the six sixes in an over kind of thriller; more the nudging and pushing, singles and twos kind of innings that doesn’t keep you enthralled, but ...Why multilateralism matters for India
Conventional wisdom suggests that great powers and aspiring great powers prefer bilateralism to multilateralism or plurilateralism; they consider the former a characteristic of the strong and regard the latter only as the privilege of the weak. India is no exception. Yet, multilateralism offers a useful path for countries to emerge as great ...Why the FM must digress
By now, the budget proposals will have been finalised. The finance minister may make some last-minute changes, but these will not be substantive. The FM knows that his speech on July 10 will be closely heard and rigorously interpreted. He knows that as the first major economic statement by the government, investors ...Modi’s twin challenge- Oil and water
They say that oil and water don’t mix. Literally true, perhaps, but, speaking metaphorically, they can be an explosive combination. The mix between the two poses the most significant risk to the Indian economy over the next few months. It threatens to reignite the drivers of inflation, the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit. At this ...Iraq: Modi’s black swan moment
In the grand scheme of candidate, and now prime minister, Narendra Modi ‘Iraq’ never featured either benignly or as a potential cause of concern. Yet, these four letters, coupled with the dreaded acronym ISIS (variously elaborated as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Islamic State of Iraq and the ...Beginning a new conversation on women
A focus on women citizens Riding on the aspirations of an electorate, Modi’s arrival into Delhi is commonly seen as a vote for development. Women are a significant share of that electorate with fundamentally distinct concerns. The last few weeks’ horrific reminder of how India publically consumes violence against women, in conjunction ...Iraq: Modi’s Black Swan Moment
In this article, W.P.S. Sidhu talks about the crisis in Iraq and how the kidnapping of the Indian hostages by ISIS caught the Modi administration off-guard. He concludes, however, that this crisis might provide just the right incentive to rework India’s policy to the Middle East.A potential jobs breakthrough
The announcement by the Rajasthan government that it would amend the state’s labour laws to give employers in the manufacturing sector the flexibility to lay off workers without prior government approval is an extremely significant development. The plan is to raise the ceiling under which such approval is not needed from 100 workers to 300. This ...US & India: Hope of deliverance
Initiatives by US President Barack Obama and Prime Minisiter Narendra Modi, leaders of the world’s biggest democracies, last fortnight evoked dramatically contrasting reactions: it appeared that the former could do no right while the latter could do no wrong. Obama’s major foreign policy speech at West Point Academy; the Taliban prisoners for Sargent Bowe Bergdahl exchange; the ...Getting down to the energy business
This may be the right political moment to resolve the dilemmas surrounding the energy policy. Energy sits at the nub of every politician’s deepest dilemma. How to meet the demands of the electorate for affordable and reliable fuel without pushing government finances into a deep hole? In the specific context of India, ...Five fiscal fixes
High on the government’s priorities should be to gain control over the fiscal situation. Between the Budget for 2014-15 to be presented next month and the one for 2015-16 in February, every opportunity to deal with both short-term and structural fiscal problems must be taken. Here is a list of five issues ...Narendra Modi’s Foreign Policy
*This column first appeared in Mint, on May 25, 2014. All views are personal. Brookings India does not hold an institutional view on any subject. Narendra Modi’s ambitious development plan, anchored in investment, infrastructure and job creation, requires two fundamental external conditions. First, ensuring a no-war environment, particularly in India’s immediate neighbourhood ...Economic & Foreign Policy Priorities for Modi’s Government
Brookings India Fellow Dr. Shamika Ravi, and Mr. R.N. Ravi, former Special Director, Intelligence Bureau of India, address questions on the economic and foreign policy priorities for the new government: How will Narendra Modi govern? Is he the right person to lead India during this challenging time in its history? Narendra Modi ...Create department of energy in PMO
The new PM should pave the way for the introduction of a bill that lays out the road map for energy independence,security and sustainability The new prime minister should immediately give a speech on energy. It should emphasise the criticality of the energy crisis and articulate the government’s intent to develop a ...Looking beyond Modi win: Experts analyze NDA’s uphill task
CNBC-TV18’s Shereen Bhan and Latha Venkatesh caught up with some of the most influential voices in the country to get a sense of what is likely to happen as far as the economy is concerned, as far as the mood in the market is concerned and with key crucial reforms. Below is ...Three national missions on priority for the Modi government
**This column first appeared in the Business Standard, on May 19, 2014. All views are personal. Brookings India does not hold an institutional view on any subject. The mandate received by the new government gives it an opportunity to set a long-term agenda without political threats. This is exactly what any government ...Why less ladies in the Lok Sabha
Gender inequality is a serious concern in most sectors but the gap between men and women has narrowed the least in political representation. Women make up merely 22% of lower houses in parliaments around the world and in India, this number is less than half at 10.8% in the outgoing Lok Sabha. ...Foreign policy: continuity, not change
On the last day of polling in India’s 16th general elections the final phase of which witnessed vicious, communal and extremely local campaigning in one corner of a single state one could be forgiven for concluding that foreign policy has no role in India’s future direction. Nothing could be further from reality. ...Time of day electricity pricing: From utilities to consumers
What is the value of saving one unit (or kilowatt-hour, kWh) of electricity? Most households would think about their bill, and then try and recall what they pay for electricity. What a large number of consumers don’t always realize is they pay a regulator-approved price that varies with their level of consumption, ...Believing in India again
It is a matter of confidence, credibility and trust. Whatever be the political hue of the next government and whoever its leader, the challenge will be to reinvigorate investor confidence in the political stewardship of the economy, restore the credibility of the executive and rebuild trust in the sanctity of policy and ...Walking the line between demographic dividend and disaster
The dominant factor that will determine whether India evolves into a middle-income nation over the next few decades is the country’s ability to generate massive numbers of jobs. As is well known, India is now in a potentially virtuous phase of its demographic transition. The working age (15-60) segment of the population ...The NIF Option
Over the past few months, I have written several columns about the chronic and intensifying problems in infrastructure. To my mind, two issues are of particular concern. First, there is a severe imbalance between investments across sectors, which lowers the productivity of each investment. Infrastructure is essentially a network phenomenon, a chain, ...Updating India’s nuclear doctrine
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it, to make it relevant to challenges of current times.” (Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat, BJP’s 2014 election manifesto). Unsurprisingly, these words have perturbed international strategic experts. Everyone remembers how the party delivered on its 1998 manifesto ...No monkey business
Why ‘right to entrepreneurship’, promised by Congress manifesto, is a bad idea. Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice; all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things. ...Thirsty, hungry and sick
The second volume of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report was published on March 31. This volume is titled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. It aggregates the current state of knowledge at both global and regional levels on how ecosystems are responding to climate change and what the larger ...Bang for the Buck
Capital efficiency is a critical determinant of how companies perform. Return on capital employed, which measures the surplus available to the providers of capital to the business, is a useful summary measure of this. Managements are judged by shareholders to have failed in strategy and execution when this measure declines. There are three broad sets ...Slippery Slope for Infrastructure
By now, all of us are used to global rankings of various kinds placing India close to the bottom of a large set of countries. Whether it is ease of doing business or corruption or transparency or human development or infrastructure quality, whenever a new ranking is announced, one instinctively begins searching ...Saudi Arabia, Iran and a three-way tango
If India is serious about being everyone’s ally in the Persian Gulf, it will have to engineer a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran In a deft diplomatic dance last week India simultaneously hosted Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the defence minister of Saudi Arabia, and Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister ...Realigning governance
In its essence, governance is about alignment. Multiple groups, each with its own menu of interests, some coherently articulated and others not, demand recognition and satisfaction from the government. Areas of commonality need to be found and reinforced, while differences need to be reconciled, not by the domination of one group over ...Perils of preserving the ancien régime
The old order changeth yielding place to new… (The Passing of Arthur) Despite the veracity of this maxim, existing members of the old nuclear order, which is closely intertwined with the world order even today, are challenging the inevitability of this line from Alfred Tennyson’s classic poem. In doing so, the original ...A national agenda – hopefully!
Frankly, I think we spend too much time and effort analysing the numbers presented by the interim Budget. At its core, the process simply involves obtaining parliamentary approval for the government to continue spending money on activities that are ongoing – from the routine to the priority and flagship programmes of the ...India’s Missing Women
Even though fair elections are held at regular intervals for State Assemblies and Parliament, they do not reflect the true consent of the people because a large number of women are missing from the electorate On her arrival in India recently, the words of Gloria Steinem, American feminist and leader of the ...The alpha male syndrome
Behaviour traits of primates can be positive or negative for governance The institution of the alpha male is common to several species, including virtually all primates. At any given time, one male dominates the group, which, among other things, gives him the exclusive right to reproduce. When an incumbent alpha shows signs of weakening, ...Why energy needs a big-picture view
The word “energy” is missing from the executive and legislative vocabulary. It is, of course, liberally used, and issues like “energy independence” and “energy security” are part of any official statement on economic policy. But it has not been officially defined. There is no national policy on energy endorsed or supported by ...India’s travails when peace talks fail
The spectacular failure of the Syrians on both the political and humanitarian fronts has put India’s objectives in jeopardy and reflects the perils of failed negotiations We all came out to Montreux, on the Lake Geneva shoreline, to make records with a mobile, we didn’t have much time… Deep Purple, “Smoke on ...Hearing echoes of 1914 in 2014
The spread of power centres all over the word (rather than its concentration in Europe as was the case in 1914) may prevent global war Noted Oxford historian Margaret MacMillan in a thoughtful essay titled The Rhyme of History identifies several worrying trends from the eve of the First World War in 1914, which ...BHAG inclusion BHAG
The goals for financial inclusion need to be matched by the means being used In their book Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (1994), James Collins and Jerry Porras postulated that an important characteristic of such companies was their articulation of their Big Hairy Audacious Goal, or BHAG. In contrast ...Finance and Sustainability: Regulatory and Strategic Dimensions
The 30th Annual Sir Purshotamdas Thakurdas Memorial Lecture CONTENTS: Introduction Sustainability Framework Sustainability and Financial Performance Regulatory and Strategic Dimensions Concluding Thoughts Good Evening. It is my great privilege to be delivering the 30th Sir Purshotamdas Thakurdas Memorial Lecture. I follow a long list of very eminent people, who have, by ...The state of the state
Whether the state, as an institution, is doing the right things and has the capacity to do them are fundamental questions in a liberal democracy. As India approaches the next general election, these are particularly significant questions. However, the articulation is as yet fuzzy and needs to get sharper if it is to translate into ...An evolving multilateralism
The global economy can be viewed as a rather complex balancing act between forces of integration and those of autarchy. In many domains – trade, development and macroeconomic stability are the obvious examples – the emergence of multilateral institutions as critical players in the process of integration reflects the strength of this ...Step on the gas
The government must make it easier for oil and gas companies to acquire assets abroad An important plank of India’s energy security policy is to build up a portfolio of international oil and gas assets. The government recognises that hydrocarbons are tradables and can be purchased in the open market. But given ...Slow burn
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is in the process of putting out its fifth series of assessment reports. There are three components in this series. The report on the first component – science – was released at the end of September. The other two – impacts and mitigation – will be ...Infra bottlenecks will dilute potential benefits of weak rupee: Subir...
Subir Gokarn: The earlier assessment was made at a time when the rupee had not depreciated. It is obviously showing signs of stability, importantly because of the announcement by the FED and the expectation that liquidity levels will continue to remain buoyant in the global economy. However, the depreciation over the last ...Public sector – Act V?
Act I: Idealism Beginning with the second Five-Year Plan in 1956, public enterprise was given a central role in the industrial development strategy for the economy. At that point, the perception that very large upstream investments, which would lay the foundations for comprehensive industrialisation, were best done by the state was quite ...Dimming of brand India
We have messed up the present. Can we still recover the future? We are in the midst of a severe economic crisis. Our macroeconomic indices are weakening. The first quarter growth figure has come in at 4.4 per cent and some analysts are projecting a figure for FY 2013-14 of below 4 ...Taper tribulations
When the United States Federal Reserve began what turned out to be a series of quantitative easing (QE) measures in October 2008, most observers would have seen it as a temporary crisis response measure, to be withdrawn as soon as it had done its job of calming markets and thawing out a ...“Un prêt du FMI est certainement une option” pour l’Inde
Subir Gokarn était le gouverneur adjoint de la banque centrale indienne entre 2009 et 2012. Il est aujourd’hui directeur de la recherche du groupe de réflexion Brookings India. Il évoque la crise des changes qui frappe son pays et qui s’aggrave avec l’hémorragie des capitaux. Comment analysez-vous la dépréciation de la roupie ...Fighting without fighting
A film that I still remember from my teenage years is the Bruce Lee classic, Enter the Dragon. In the film, when the group of contestants is travelling to the island for the tournament, Lee is asked by a rather aggressive competitor, Parsons, about his martial arts style. He responds that his ...A fact check on gas
How the recent gas price hike got it right. ONGC, Reliance and Cairn, the three major oil and gas producers in the country, should make an earnest effort to bring politicians, bureaucrats and other opinion-makers to their producing fields in the offshore basins of Krishna Godavari, the desert of the Barmer district ...Reflections from Binsar
Talent, money and policy must be harnessed to search for the optimal development-environment balance The tragedy in Uttarakhand cannot be overstated. It is a tragedy of monumental proportions. For me, there is a personal dimension. I have a home in the forest sanctuary of Binsar which is 40 miles north of Almora. ...