Preface

There is an abundance of anecdotal and topical commentary on China’s influence in South Asia. And yet, there is little by way of rigorous academic study on the subject. By encouraging reputed scholars from the sub-region itself to write these essays, describing aspects of China’s influence in their own countries, the Centre for Social and Economic Progress has made a promising beginning in studying the nature and extent of China’s influence in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Its additional value comes from its examination of the diverse instrumentalities that China employs to extend her influence, including through education, social media, Buddhism, and political parties.

What emerges from this exercise is a picture of variety in methods, effect, and impact. There is clearly a serious Chinese effort to increase her influence in south Asia over the last decade and a half, and that effort is marked by considerable innovation and sophistication in its methods. But the efficacy of those methods in terms of outcomes is, at best, mixed.

The reasons for the varied effectiveness of China’s efforts to gain influence in south Asia differ from country to country. The one common factor that might explain the variance is the politics that seems inseparable from these efforts. This is true in terms of China’s own shifting policies: from the Cultural Revolution export of revolution, to Deng Xiaoping’s reforming emphasis on economics, to the securitisation of relationships under President Xi Jinping. It is also equally the case that Chinese influence operations are now often entangled in the domestic politics of south Asian countries, whether in Nepal, Sri Lanka or in Bangladesh. As a result, the proportion of local opinion favourable to China in south Asian countries, with the exception of Pakistan, has varied considerably over time and is not rising.

Equally important as the effort put in by China is the demand in south Asia for what China has to offer, particularly in terms of infrastructure building and financial support, which opens the door for China’s soft power. In this respect, south Asia other than India is no different from the rest of the global south. It remains to be seen whether this welcome will continue as China gains power and agency in the international system and behaves as other great powers do. Already China is willing to be seen taking sides and expressing preferences in the internal politics of Nepal and Sri Lanka, and this has occasioned natural reactions in the political sphere.

What we have in this volume are contributions to a serious effort to understand an evolving phenomenon. China itself, south Asia, and the international environment are undergoing rapid change on an unprecedented scale. It is our hope that this volume will contribute to the growing international scholarship and interest in the phenomenon of China’s growing international influence in a significant part of the world.