The Communist Party of China and Its Political Influence in Sri Lanka under the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Regime

Abstract

The International Department of the Communist Party of China has spread its reach to many developing nations, including Sri Lanka. It provides policy suggestions to Sri Lankan think tanks and political parties to encourage them to embrace and emulate China’s model of reforms. The global pandemic has accelerated such soft power projections. This is evident in how China is openly pursuing its dual approach of economic diplomacy coupled with the Communist Party of China’s activities and involvement in Sri Lanka. The close relations between the political party led by the Rajapaksas, the Sri Lanka Podujana Party, and the Communist Party of China is evident. The chapter will discuss the International Department of the Communist Party of China’s strategies of engagement in Sri Lanka. The analysis will explore the limitations of China’s political reforms arising from its Leninist political structure, which is causing tension within China between the reformists and power hawks. With the present politico-economic crisis, and in the post-Rajapaksa regime of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe, how will China’s approach fit in? What are the possible long-term implications?

Introduction

The “peaceful rise of China” was a phrase coined by Zheng Bijian, chair of the China Reform Forum, and former executive vice-president of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China (CPC), in 2002. Zheng’s view was that China’s rise to prominence in the international arena would come with a commitment to protect global peace and sustainable prosperity through the projection of soft power. China’s trajectory between the tenures of General Secretary Hu Jintao and General Secretary Xi Jinping reflects a strong commitment to this view. The country has followed a strategy of leveraging soft power, which has led to the International Department Central Committee of the CPC (IDCPC) establishing its presence in many nations, including Sri Lanka. The IDCPC provides policy suggestions to think tanks and political parties in Sri Lanka to encourage them to embrace and emulate China’s model of reforms.

Such soft power projections have accelerated during the global pandemic. This is evident in how openly China is pursuing its dual approach of economic diplomacy coupled with CPC activity in developing nations such as Sri Lanka. The island nation’s ruling political party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) led by the Rajapaksas, maintains a close relationship with the CPC. Joint seminars by the SLPP and the IDCPC demonstrate this close political collaboration and how the CPC is perceived as a possible model to be emulated (IDCPC 2020). Further, Sri Lankan policymakers and certain sections of the general public have expressed acceptance and praise of the Chinese model of development. These sentiments, expressed by those in the higher echelons of Sri Lankan politics, count among several factors that could weaken democratic governance in Sri Lanka.

The chapter will discuss the CPC’s strategies of engagement in Sri Lanka. It suggests that the nature of China’s political system and its involvement in Sri Lanka create a conflict within the island nation—a tendency towards centralisation of power rather than accountability to and oversight by parliament. With the present politico-economic crisis, and despite Mahinda Rajapaksa’s exit as prime minister, the CPC can be expected to play a more prominent role in the country’s political affairs.

China’s political model

Under its Leninist structure, members of the CPC are engaged in running the state and are also part of private-sector institutions and businesses. This tight control allows the Party to keep the communist model intact while calibrating reforms. Stephen Kotkin’s work shows how communist regimes that open their economies inevitably become more autocratic regimes (Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2020). This points to the danger in emulating China’s political model.

When China opened up its economy in 1978, it invited greater exposure to ideological influences from outside that could challenge the CPC’s control. Deng Xiaoping famously quoted, “If you open the window for fresh air, you have to expect some flies to blow in” (Punyakumpol, 2011). The CPC foresaw that opening up the economy would greatly benefit China’s economic trajectory but would also potentially cause a colour revolution in society. To prevent this ingress of liberal, democratic values, the CPC developed a centralised power structure and now oversees a surveillance state (Albert, Maizland, & Xu, 2021). Further, to counter ideas that oppose China’s political status quo, it exports its political vision through several means.

One such tool is the expansion of infrastructure diplomacy under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across many continents. With its aggressive ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ during the pandemic, the CPC has also taken a step toward engaging with developing nations and power centres in a more assertive manner (Balachandran, 2021). Several direct comments by the Chinese embassy in Colombo to the US ambassador signal this interventionist cum confrontational mode of engagement (Colombo Gazette, 2020a). A key part of this agenda is promoting the China model as a substitute for the liberal democratic model.

The dual challenge facing China is keeping the CPC Leninist structure intact while influencing developing nations to engage in an alternative model. In a report on the CPC’s influence on Europe, scholars from Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) identified that China’s authoritarian ideals pose a significant challenge to liberal democracy as well as Europe’s values and interests. The same report explains the CPC’s use of various tools to achieve its goals (Benner et al., 2018). The same can be said of developing nations, particularly Sri Lanka, which has a significant Chinese sphere of influence due to its debt burden.

According to David O. Shullman (2019), “CPC conducts large-scale training of foreign officials about its development methods and provides increasingly sophisticated technology to authoritarian governments.” Further, he explains that “Chinese information efforts have factored into election campaigns in numerous developing countries across continents, including Zambia, Peru, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.”

According to Ambassador Shivshankar Menon, it was clear that China chose its preferred candidate, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, before the 2019 presidential elections, which is a clear indication of Chinese intervention in the domestic politics of Sri Lanka (ISAS Events, 2020). This comes after a previous accusation of China funding Rajapaksa’s political campaign (Abi-Habib, 2018). This could be seen as a political investment by China to secure its influence in the island nation.

China completely denies this assessment of internal political interference, claiming that it follows a non-intervention policy (Lo and Zhou, 2018). Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang’s comment that “China will stick to the principle of not interfering” (Lo and Zhou, 2018) even during Sri Lanka’s constitutional crisis does not hold water due to China’s preference for the Rajapaksa regime.

IDCPC and the promotion of the Chinese model of governance

The International Department Central Committee of the CPC (IDCPC) has in recent years played an active role in the Sri Lankan political landscape (Table 1). The seminar held by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), belonging to the Rajapaksa brothers, and the IDCPC on November 4, 2020, is a prime example of this (IDCPC, 2020). It was reported that the seminar was the result of a consensus reached between President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and President Xi Jinping and was held to promote regular engagement between the two and share in-depth insights on their governance experiences (Hui, 2020c).

This illustrates two visible political trends. First, CPC-affiliated organisations are increasingly promoting the Chinese model of governance in nations such as Sri Lanka. Second, political actors in such nations are willing to explore opportunities offered by the Chinese model of governance at the cost of liberal democratic values. The close monitoring of these two trends is essential to the discourse on the expanding influence of the CPC.

At the seminar, Song Tao, then Director of the IDCPC, stated that “expanding bilateral Belt and Road cooperation will boost the economic development of the two countries and bring more benefits to the two peoples”, while noting that Sri Lanka is an important partner for China in the construction of the BRI (Hui, 2020a). Further, Sri Lankan ruling-party policymakers — including Basil Rajapaksa, President Rajapaksa’s brother and political strategist of the SLPP — have accepted and praised the Chinese model of development (NewsWire, 2020). These are clear indications of an expanding Sino-Lanka political relationship.

Opposition, trade unions, and China

The socialist essence of the Rajapaksa coalition stems from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and coalition partners such as the Communist Party of Sri Lanka (CPSL). Many coalition members, including CPSL leader Dew Gunasekera, are strong old-school advocates of the Chinese model and promote a strong Sino-Lanka relationship (Daily News, 2020a). The political push from these coalition partners has a significant impact on the higher committee levels of government. Sri Lanka’s ability to assess the ‘Chinese sphere of influence’ is thus adversely impacted. Such a poor assessment of the Chinese sphere of influence by the political leadership might have cost the nation important strategic projects such as the East Container Terminal (ECT) public-private partnership with India, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact grant from the US, and the Japanese-funded Light Rail Transit (LRT) project. Such a lack of strategic foresight has further affected Sri Lanka’s bilateral relationships with these nations, with both economic and diplomatic costs.

During Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Sri Lanka in early 2022, a few important areas of concern for Indo-Lanka relations were discussed. The devolution of power, Tamilian grievances taken up at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), and the stalled ECT development agreement were at the top of his agenda during discussions with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mohan, 2021). A few days after the visit, a weekend newspaper called The Sunday Times claimed that Chinese intelligence was behind the delay in the execution of the ECT port agreement with India (The Sunday Times, 2021). Whatever the veracity of such claims, the newspaper did observe a broader Chinese geopolitical push into Sri Lanka’s strategic decision-making process.

The ECT, a tripartite agreement with India, Japan, and Sri Lanka, which was secured during the previous Sirisena-Wickramasinghe regime, was cancelled due to a massive trade-union protest in Colombo Port. The port trade unions threatened to stop all operations in the port if the government agreed to the development of the ECT under a public-private partnership (PPP) agreement with an Indian developer/port operator. The government bowed under this pressure, and the ECT contract was denied to the Indian company, Adani Group, on grounds of national interest. However, the Sri Lankan Cabinet of Ministers decided to award a USD 12 million renewable energy joint venture project to China MS/Sinosar-Etechwin at the same time (Rubatheesan, 2021). This was a national security concern for India due to the geographical proximity of the energy project to the Indian shoreline. With New Delhi now pushing its security concerns in turn, this latter project was eventually terminated by the Sri Lankan government (Bagchi, 2021).

Importantly, geopolitics was the unusual agenda for the protest against the ECT by trade-union leaders. Sanjaya Kumara Weligama, president of the Progressive Workers Association for Commercial Industry and Services, in a statement with the 23 unified trade unions belonging to the Colombo Port said that “none of the patriotic forces in the country wants to overthrow the Government but help direct the Government on the right path” (Daily News, 2021). Their effort was portrayed as protecting the nation’s strategic assets. However, patriotism of such magnitude was not seen when the Hambantota port was leased in a 99-year agreement to China. Compared to the Chinese Hambantota lease, the ECT tripartite agreement had no geopolitical concerns nor did it threaten the sovereignty of the nation. On the contrary, the development of the ECT with an Indian partner would have brought Sri Lanka substantial economic returns since “around 70% of Colombo Port’s transshipment business is India-related” (Sri Lanka Export Development Board, 2019).

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s earlier wish to proceed with the ECT for a 51/49 per cent government majority share was on the right path to achieving an important PPP with two key strategic partners—India and Japan. Therefore, the opposition to the project was driven by deceitfully orchestrated fear instigated by trade unions who weaponised nationalist sentiment. According to a media report, the “Indian diplomatic sources, said India is of ‘strong view’ that Chinese agencies were funding some protests against the ECT deal” (South Asia Monitor , 2021). Further a Sri Lankan popular newspaper reported that the “ECT initiative was promoted by Chinese Intelligence, with the objective of having it blocked” (Sunday Times, 2021). It can therefore be surmised that the protests had clear support from an internal political force backed by China.

The contrived fear that certain external powers will take over Sri Lanka’s strategic assets, hyped up by ultra-nationalists, further dragged the ailing economy into a narrow corridor of maligned mercantilism with very few opportunities (Abeyagoonasekera, 2021). The incessant displeasure with, and rejection of, agreements from western quarters such as the MCC grant (ColomboPage, 2020a), Status of Forces Agreement with the US (Gunasekara, 2019), Japan’s LRT (Reuters, 2020), and India’s ECT (Janardhanan, 2021) indicate the Sri Lankan government’s political allegiance towards China. China’s strong influence in Sri Lanka was cultivated by bribing and financing the policy circle, the elites, and other influence groups, including political parties (Pal, 2021).

The heavy Chinese influence could drag Sri Lanka toward a different economic and political model—from the existing free-market model, which promotes liberal values, to a malignant protectionist model with a semi-controlled economy. The recent market interventions and import bans by the government illustrate that this shift has already begun (Nordhaus & Shah, 2022). The ailing economy, with further borrowings such as the March 2021 currency swap deal of USD 1.5 billion, shows that the Gotabaya presidency prefers China as the most trusted partner for borrowing, akin to the administration of his brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa (2005–2015).

The Colombo Port City Project by China, with its reclaimed seafront sitting next to Colombo Port, was given full clearance by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s regime to operate a special economic zone with extra-jurisdictional rights. These are clear signs of the regime amalgamating the Chinese development model. Member of Parliament Wijedasa Rajapaksa compared the Port City acquisition to the Hambantota Port lease, adding that “the 1,100 acres reclaimed do not belong to Sri Lanka, the Western Province or the Colombo District. Through the bill, a commission will be set up to regulate that land. The Commission acts in accordance with the requirements of the Chinese company … this land has been released from all 14 tax acts including the Inland Revenue Act. Even Parliament cannot deal with this and its salaries are paid in foreign currency. If we go there and buy something, we have to pay taxes for it. This is completely similar to any other country” (ColomboPage, 2021).

China’s economic grip on Sri Lanka could have significant consequences for the Sri Lankan political model and political parties, especially the ruling SLPP. With the SLPP’s two-thirds parliamentary majority, and the October 2020 constitutional reforms transferring power to the executive, the country appears to be on a clear path toward authoritarian rule. “China does not necessarily advocate, much less force, other states to adopt one-party authoritarian rule for themselves. Instead, China wants to quash opposition and criticism of Chinese Communist Party rule abroad and ensure Chinese access to markets and natural resources” (United States Institute of Peace, 2020). From the inception of BRI in 2013, China has strategically managed to quash criticism in Sri Lanka by winning over policymakers who even promised the public that they would investigate Chinese projects for corruption (Daily Mirror, 2015).

Another area that Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar highlighted was the long unaddressed minority community grievances and human rights concerns in Sri Lanka. A recent report by Human Rights Watch highlights serious challenges for Sri Lanka internationally, which can only be resolved through multilateral support and diplomacy. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has warned that the council will reach a “critical turning point” in its dealings with Sri Lanka at the upcoming session due to Sri Lanka’s long unresolved commitments and the present unfavourable developments, especially the country’s recent militarisation (Human Rights Watch, 2021).

In contrast, this is of no concern for China as it reflects the central command model of the Chinese government. As the Sri Lankan government is challenged internationally for failing to resolve domestic issues concerning reconciliation, accountability, and the grievances of minority communities, it will expect more support from China, especially at the UNHRC. China has stood with Sri Lanka in the past, defending it at the UNHRC and against human rights concerns raised by the West (Tamil Guardian, 2022).

This indicates a space of uninterrupted political growth for China to expand its influence in Sri Lanka. It is also reflective of Sri Lanka’s dangerous multi-dependency on China for diplomatic, economic, and governance-related activities. Therefore, in the Gotabaya presidency, we see a strong departure from Sri Lanka’s liberal democratic values toward a China-centred value system in a geopolitical landscape where China’s influence has further expanded.

Militarisation in Sri Lanka

The increasing militarisation of different sectors under the Gotabaya presidency shows its affinity toward the China development model (Pereira, 2020; ColomboPage, 2020b). Nations with semi-autocratic majoritarian governments, weak democratic indicators, a lack of rule of law and respect for basic human rights, provide ideal sites for experiments with the Chinese model. Myanmar, with its recent coup, and Sri Lanka have drifted from democratic models toward a more military-centric, semi-autocratic model (The Economist, 2020). In both scenarios, China has been a key strategic partner who has defended the countries’ human rights agendas and backed the ruling regimes at international forums. In both these nations, China has a large infrastructure development agenda through the BRI and also direct political influence and interest.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is a former military officer and has appointed other former military officers to bring in their expertise and discipline to form a highly inefficient system of government. The new majoritarian regime of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, with its 28 military appointments to various state sectors such as banks, health, aviation, and agriculture, has been negatively perceived by the western democratic front (Human Rights Watch, 2021; Tracking Militarization in Sri Lanka, n.d.). For example, Human Rights Watch, in its latest country report, highlighted militarisation as a threat to a democratic society.

This is the first time that Sri Lanka is undergoing such broad militarisation of government processes (Sri Lanka Army, n.d.; EconomyNext, 2021), which has had a strong impact on civil servants and the business community. One fifth of the presidential task force in Sri Lanka, responsible for formulating the country’s post-COVID economic response, was from the armed forces. Sri Lanka’s credibility as a free and open society has also been affected (Tracking Militarization in Sri Lanka, n.d.).

This model is reflective of the CPC model of centralised command control. In April 2021, a Military Assistance Protocol was signed during Chinese State Councillor and Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe’s visit to Sri Lanka (Ministry of Defence Sri Lanka, 2021). During the visit, President Rajapaksa expressed his interest in “governing experience from the Communist Party of China on poverty alleviation and rural revitalization” (CGTN, 2021). The multiple bilateral defence agreements between Sri Lanka’s military and the People’s Republic of China is a clear indication of the latter’s deepening influence on the civil-military balance in Sri Lanka.

China’s influence on Sri Lanka’s foreign policy

The “balanced and nonaligned” foreign policy of Sri Lanka, articulated in President Gotabaya’s election manifesto (Rajapaksa, n.d.), is struggling to maintain a balance due to the growing Chinese sphere of influence. The government’s earlier position that it will revisit the Chinese Hambanthota port 99-year lease agreement was mere rhetoric that never materialised (Bloomberg, 2019). In reality, the government prefers to hedge, executing two contradictory policies simultaneously hoping for one to materialise support. The decision to hedge with China and India while being rhetorically neutral can have serious policy consequences, including the erosion of the country’s principal values and commitments to international law, democracy, and human rights due to the acceptance of an alternative to the existing democratic liberal model.

The CPC is busy making inroads into Sri Lanka, influencing Rajapaksa’s SLPP as well as think tanks such as Pathfinder Foundation in Colombo. In 2020, Pathfinder Advisory Services signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Chinese telecom provider Huawei to establish a framework to jointly develop ICT solutions for ports, airports, education, and agriculture in Sri Lanka (Daily FT, 2020). At the conference of the ‘China-Sri Lanka Political Parties Belt and Road Consultation Mechanism’ on June 11, 2020, Pathfinder Foundation recommended a book titled Prevention and Control of COVID-19 by Dr. Zhang Wenhong to the health sector of Sri Lanka to explain the “health procedures recommended by the book are beneficial for more than just coping with COVID-19, but are also essential in sustaining a healthy Sri Lankan society” (Hui, 2020b).

The strategic community is being led by a China-favouring group of public intellectuals who continue to support China’s growing influence (Daily News, 2020b; Xinhua, 2021). There are clusters of such public intellectuals who are being given more prime time and have significant media coverage. Their arguments have helped sway public opposition against the development of the ECT and have fanned growing anti-India sentiments.

Thus, Sri Lanka has shifted from a balanced policy with India toward a hedging foreign policy with China. Seen as a strong future power in the region, it is departing from a balanced foreign policy. The above-described public intellectuals support such a deviation. This raises reasonable questions as to whether their activity is linked to CPC-related initiatives. As Stephen M. Walt points out in his work The Origins of Alliances, “the weaker the state the more likely it is to bandwagon rather than balance” (Walt, 1987). Deteriorating economic conditions, with multiple miscalculated strategic choices and the continued militarisation of government functions, will further reduce Sri Lanka’s options, creating greater opportunities for the CPC to expand its influence within the Sri Lankan sociopolitical network.

With the present political crisis, where three cabinets were appointed in two months in April and May 2022, there is a direct impact on Rajapaksa’s semi-autocratic political model and foreign policy, especially toward China (Gupta, 2022; Al Jazeera, 2022). The proposed structural adjustment to the Constitution, the 21st Amendment, which will revise the earlier 19th Amendment and shift power toward the legislature, will help redemocratise the political environment (PTI, 2022).

Push and pull factors

Chinese push factors for a CPC model in Sri Lanka are evident from high-powered delegation visits such as the seven-member delegation led by Yang Jiechi, Politburo member of the CPC Central Committee, in October 2020 (ColomboPage, 2020c). China is using its already well-established diplomatic relationship with the Rajapaksa regime to accelerate BRI projects with more loans and by supporting the ailing economy and pushing its CPC political model (Srinivasan, 2021).

The Chinese embassy in Colombo plays a critical role in this strategy, actively engaging on social media and promoting an alternative model in Sri Lanka. China’s endorsement of a particular kind of regime in Sri Lanka is clear; supporting the militarised model and voting in favour of Sri Lanka at the United Nations Human Rights Council resolution in Geneva are clear push factors from China. China is clearly pushing for an alternative political model, accelerating with the CPC centenary and founded on close historical and present associations at the political party level. China will also push at different government levels, including at the public sector and bureaucratic levels, on training for public sector efficiency (Sri Lanka Institute of Development Administration, n.d.). Another evident push factor of the Chinese political model involves media personnel, academia, and think tanks (Colombo Gazette, 2020b; Daily FT, 2018). According to a Chatham House report, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises have been actively involved in shaping Sri Lankan policies in labour, environment, and local institutions (Wignaraja, et al., 2020).

After China backed Sri Lanka by voting against the UNHRC resolution, Sri Lanka’s Foreign Secretary Jayanath Colombage, clearly expressed that the resolution was a “Western conspiracy” against the nation (Tamil Guardian, 2021). This assessment has accelerated a pull from the Sri Lankan government to adopt the Chinese model. The telephonic conversation between President Xi and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa after the UNHRC resolution provides a clear indication of this—President Rajapaksa thanked China for its support at the UNHRC and further explained, “The eradication of poverty is my prime concern for which we can take a cue from China.” The Chinese development model is to be emulated in the provincial areas of the country to bring development (Daily News, 2021), perhaps to support President’s ‘Gama Samaga Pilisandara’ (Direct Dialogue with the Village) initiative (Daily News, 2020c).

This strong pull factor will go beyond existing infrastructure diplomacy. Hambantota Port and Port City and their new laws are clear indications that China intends to stay on the island for a long time. The current development model in Sri Lanka, including its important component of majoritarian militaristic politics, shows a growing inclination towards the CPC’s development model and politics.

Conclusion

The strongly majoritarian government elected in Sri Lanka in 2020, comprising President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, promised political reform, ranging from constitutional change to moving power from the legislature to the executive. Unsurprisingly, the political influence of the CPC in Sri Lanka has accelerated since then. The IDCPC has played a considerable role in the administration of Sri Lanka by President Rajapaksa and the ruling political party, SLPP. The partnership and strategic positioning of the SLPP and IDCPC have created an active affinity to adopt China’s political and economic development model.

There have been changes in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, from a balanced foreign policy to a hedging one with China. The heavy militarisation of government functions, and the weaponisation of trade unions against multilateral development projects with India, Japan, and the United States, are all symptoms of this trend.

These symptoms indicate a growing domestic shift toward a more centrally controlled form of government, contrary to democratic principles, in a semi-autocratic model accepted by China. This political shift toward a semi-autocratic model has had significant consequences for Sri Lanka and the region. Under the Rajapaksas, the CPC’s approach fits well and will have long-term implications for the nation’s already frayed democratic fabric. How far this trend will continue will depend on the domestic political climate.

Table 1: Exchanges between CPC and political parties in Sri Lanka

Acknowledgement

The author thanks Shruti Jargad for developing the table, “Exchanges between CPC and political parties in Sri Lanka.”

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