Demystifying the Climate Benefit of EV Transition in India

Executive Summary

Battery-driven electric vehicles (EVs) hold promise for decarbonising India’s rapidly growing road trans­port sector. However, achieving significant emission reductions through widespread EV uptake is not a given. It hinges on the energy performance of EVs and cross-sector linkages, especially to the power sector. This paper examines the complexities of the climate impact of the transition to electric drivetrains based on a data-driven analysis that best reflects the real-world use of EVs. It offers actionable insights that call for interventions spanning policy to imple­mentation levels to maximise the climate benefits of India’s EV revolution.

1. The Allure of Electric Mobility and the Imperative for a Reality Check

India’s economic progress is intricately linked to the expansion of its road transport network. This sector, while vital, is a significant contributor to the nation’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and deteriorating air quality. EVs, heralded globally as a cornerstone of green transportation, offer a compelling solution to mitigate these environmental challenges. However, in a country where fossil fuels still dominate electricity generation, transitioning from petroleum to elec­trons in powering the vehicles does not automatically result in substantial emission reductions.

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the fac­tors influencing the actual climate benefits of EV adoption in India. It moves beyond simplistic com­parison of individual vehicle models and assumption of constant electricity supply mix across the country to examine the broader EV and energy landscape, considering:

• The diversity of vehicle energy performance within and across segments.
• The dynamic nature of India’s grid electric­ity supply, including the temporal variation in renewable energy (RE) share.
• The crucial role of EV charging pattern and its alignment with clean electricity availability.
• The geographical variation in electricity supply mix and its implication for regional EV strategies.

By dissecting these linkages, the paper aims to pro­vide policymakers, implementing agencies, industry leaders, and investors with the insights needed to make informed decisions and unlock the full decar­bonisation potential of electric mobility in India.

2. The Fallacy of Simplicity: Why a Real-World Approach is Essential for Evaluating EV Emissions

Numerous studies have attempted to quantify the emission reduction potential of EVs. However, many rely on simplified methodologies that can misrepre­sent the true climate impact. These approaches often fall short in several critical aspects:

• Cherry-Picking Models for Comparison: Focusing on comparisons between select EV and conventional vehicle models fails to capture the wide range of energy efficiencies that exist within vehicle segments. This can lead to misleading generalisations about the overall impact of EV adoption.
• Overlooking the Dynamics of the Grid Electric­ity Supply: Assuming a static national average grid electricity carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission factor disregards the fluctuating nature of India’s electricity supply mix. The share of renewable energy (RE), particularly solar and wind, varies significantly throughout the day, influencing the emissions associated with EV charging at differ­ent times.
• Ignoring Variable Charging Patterns: EV charging is not a constant load. Factors like vehi­cle use-case, travel characteristics, and the avail­ability of charging infrastructure influence when and where EVs are charged. Owing to the varying charging pattern, EVs may avoid GHG emissions significantly, deliver limited climate dividends, or even consume more carbon space depending on their charging alignment with periods of high RE availability.

3. A Deeper Analysis: Unveiling the Underlying Factors Shaping Emissions from EVs

Electric Drivetrains Outperform in Energy Efficiency, but Grid Electricity Dictates Emissions

Analysis of a comprehensive dataset of vehicle models available in the Indian market confirms the inherent efficiency advantage of electric drivetrain across nine distinct vehicle segments, including two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles, passenger cars, and buses. On average, EVs consistently demonstrate end-use energy consumption levels at least three times lower than their conventional counterparts. Moreover, advancements in battery technology and power electronics promise further improvements in EV efficiency, widening the gap in the years to come.

When factoring in the annual average carbon emis­sion factor of India’s grid electricity at present, the emissions advantage of EVs diminishes. While still generally cleaner than internal combustion engine vehicles, their emissions are directly tied to the pro­portion of fossil fuels used for power generation. This highlights the critical need to accelerate the decar­bonisation of the electricity grid to fully realise the emission reduction potential of EVs.

Time-of-Day Charging: A Critical Factor for EV-Related Emissions

This study underscores the profound impact of aligning EV charging with periods of high RE sup­ply on the grid. Charging during evening or over­night hours, characterised by increased reliance on coal-fired power plants, leads to significantly higher emissions compared to charging during the daytime when sunshine brings down the carbon load of grid electricity.

The findings demonstrate that choosing the right time to charge can significantly alter the emissions profile of an EV. Charging during the day can avoid nearly 10% higher CO₂ emissions compared to charging during the evening. This translates to addi­tional yearly emission reductions of 10 kg of CO₂ in the case of an electric scooter and 106 kg for an elec­tric sedan.

The impact is even more profound for electric buses, where daytime charging is not just beneficial but essential to achieve meaningful emission reductions.

Geographical Variations: Tailoring EV Strategies to Regional Electricity Mixes

For different reasons, the majority of RE growth in India is in a handful of states. Recognising the diver­sity of electricity generation sources and associated emission intensities across India is paramount for an effective decarbonisation strategy. This paper anal­yses the power procurement mixes of nine major Indian cities, revealing substantial variations in the carbon footprint of their electricity supply. Conse­quently, the emissions from an EV can vary signifi­cantly depending on the city or state in which it is operated. This underscores the need for ramping up renewable electricity generation capacity at a sub-na­tional level and regionally tailored approaches to EV deployment and charging.

4. A Clean Energy Future: Unlocking the True Potential of Electric Mobility

India’s desired low-carbon electricity pathway, detailed in the National Electricity Plan (NEP), is crucial for unlocking the climate benefits of EV tran­sition. The plan envisions a substantial increase in non-fossil fuel-based power generation, resulting in a projected decline in the grid emission factor by end of this decade.

This clean energy transition will be vital for EVs. As the grid becomes progressively decarbonised, the emissions gap between EVs and conventional vehi­cles will widen significantly. By FY 2031-2032, EVs across all segments are projected to achieve sub­stantial emission reductions. However, this benefit is predicated on the alignment of EV charging with hours of high RE share on the grid and/or large-scale deployment of long-duration energy storage capacity.

5. Overcoming Barriers: Navigating the Challenges to a Sustainable EV Transition

While the path to a cleaner transportation future through electric mobility is promising, several key challenges need to be addressed:

• Accelerating RE Capacity Addition: Meet­ing ambitious targets for solar and wind power deployment will be essential to achieving the desired grid decarbonisation. The runway to real­ise the goals is getting shorter each passing day.
• Managing the Intermittency of RE: Optimal utilisation of the high shares of variable RE sources like solar and wind necessitates signif­icant investments in energy storage capacities, including pumped hydro and battery energy storage systems.
• Making Clean Electricity Available for EV Charging: Increasing the share of variable RE will further skew the temporal distribution of clean electricity making it harder to decarbonise EV charging.

6. Conclusion: A Call to Action for a Sustainable Electric Mobility Future

This paper emphasises that transitioning to a cleaner and more sustainable transportation future through vehicle electrification requires a holistic and realistic approach. It calls for coordinated action from poli­cymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers, focusing on:

• Aligning EV Charging with Greener Hours: Encouraging daytime charging through time-of-day electricity tariffs tailored for regional contexts, providing public charging in sync with travel patterns, and leveraging the charging flexi­bility in case of battery swapping.
• Promoting EVs with Higher Energy Effi­ciency: Nudging production and marketing of more efficient EV models by mandating energy labelling of traction battery packs and systems and setting more stringent CO₂ emission targets under future Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) enforcement cycles with expanded scope.
• Coupling EV Charging Infrastructure with Distributed RE Resources: Facilitating cost-ef­fective integration of charging facilities with RE at the local level through innovative renewable-en­ergy-as-a-service mechanisms and application of end-of-mobility-life batteries for energy storage.

By embracing this multifaceted strategy, India can harness the full potential of EV transition to curb transportation emissions and drive its mobility to a sustainable future.