Getting to Net Zero: An Approach for India at CoP-26

Summary:

The 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC’s Working Group I has issued a “code red” warning: climate change is “widespread, rapid and intensifying” and the world looks set to exceed the Paris target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as early as 2035. If the process is not halted, we could see global warming reaching +3°C by the end of the century with far more frequent extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, interruption of normal monsoon patterns, rising sea levels and flooding. Numerous studies have credibly established that India would be among the countries most severely affected.

The good news is that if we act fast enough to cut emissions drastically and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we will still exceed the +1.5°C limit, but the warming could be reversed and global temperatures nudged back to around +1.5°C by the end of this century, without any long-term damage to the ecosystem. We have a big stake in ensuring that this happens.

These issues will be discussed in the upcoming G20 meeting in October and CoP-26 in November. These meetings will occur in an environment in which global opinion is much more aware of the dangers of climate change as is reflected not only in views expressed by NGOs and other thought leaders but increasingly also heads of major corporations. Governments have also responded. Both the US and the EU have announced longer-term targets of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Several other governments, including some from developing countries, have also endorsed the net zero date of 2050. China and Indonesia have put forth 2060 as their net zero date.

What strategy should India adopt in the forthcoming international meetings? This paper attempts to answer that question. Part I outlines our traditional position, which has been to refrain from making any commitment to reduce emissions, and argues that the time has come to modify our stand because changes in technology now make it possible to grow while also reducing emissions over time. Part II assesses whether the transition to renewable energy, which is now “technically feasible”, will also be “economically viable” in terms of cost competitiveness. This is critical to determine the immediate costs of transitioning to a low emissions pathway. Part III summarises the results of various studies estimating the extent of emissions reduction that is possible over the next three to four decades. Part IV highlights the structural changes that shifting to renewables will entail, and the many policy changes required from both the centre and the state governments to manage the transition. Part V draws upon the analysis to suggest a new negotiating strategy that we could push for in the CoP-26.