Blog: Is inflation dead? Development Seminar challenges conventional wisdom on declining inflation prices

Our Development Seminar attempted to answer to the puzzle of low inflation in the Advanced Economies (AE), a phenomenon observed over the last 20 years.  Part of the answer is provided by the fact that global supply of college graduates, especially the supply of the rest of the world relative to the supply in advanced economies, has been expanding at a fast rate. This globalisation phenomena helps explain the trend in real wages of college educated labor in the US since the 1980s. The talk documented the reality that oil prices have ceased to have an impact on inflation, and that the gap between developing economies inflation and AE inflation is close to a historical low, and less than 200 basis points. Bhalla discussed the determinants of inflation in India and forecast future trends.

The Development Seminar featured Surjit S. Bhalla, Member, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council & Chairman, Oxus Research & Investments.

Discussant: Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist, JP Morgan. Chinoy has previously worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, and with McKinsey & Company in New York. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2001.

Speaker Profile:

Surjit S. Bhalla is Senior India Analyst for the Observatory Group, a New York based macroeconomic policy advisory firm,  Chairman of Oxus Research & Investments, and Contributing Editor, Indian Express. Surjit has taught at the Delhi School of Economics and served as Executive Director of the Policy Group in New Delhi, the country’s first non-government funded think tank. Since 1999, he has been on the governing board of India’s largest think tank, NCAER. He is the author of several academic articles as well as three books on globalization and its effects on the world economy –  Imagine There’s no Country (2002), Devaluing to Prosperity (2012), and most recently (2017) The New Wealth of Nations. He holds a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, a Masters in Public and International Affairs from Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, and a BSEE degree from Purdue University. In 2017 he was appointed as a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s newly-formed Economic Advisory Council. He lives in New Delhi.

Bhalla’s comments at the seminar were covered in Times of India, Business Standard, Outlook India, Money Control, The Pioneer and several other media outlets, and by TV channel BTVi.

Development Seminars Series @ Brookings India

The Development Seminars Series @ Brookings India is a platform for global scholars to present their work to a curated audience of senior government officials, politicians, journalists, academics and policy enthusiasts. The format of the seminars includes a senior researcher as a lead presenter and a government/industry expert to discuss the results and relevance within the Indian context. The fundamental focus of the seminar series is to draw research-based insights to shape and influence policy dialogues in India, through purposeful and pointed discussions.

Previous Development Seminar Series Photographs

Previous Development Seminars

• Digital India sounds lovely, but do you trust the digital planet?
• Who Benefits from College and the Stock Market?
• Indian Migration to the United States
• The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy, By Viral Acharya
• Immigration and its Discontents
• America’s Economic Anxiety
• Using Technology to Strengthen Democracy
• The Online Education Revolution and India
• Environmental Challenges in India
• Corporate social responsibility in India: Law, implementation and evidence
• Pathways to Reducing Poverty and Sharing Prosperity in India
• Launch of paper ‘Building Smart Cities in India’
• D. Subbarao on leading the RBI through 5 turbulent years
• Disguised Corruption: Evidence from Consumer Credit in China
• Transporting India to the 2030s by Rakesh Mohan