An Overview of Climate-Economy and Energy System Models
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Mathematical modelling programs have become indispensable in climate science and policy research, providing projections of greenhouse gas emissions and economic output for the analysis of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. These programs, including Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and Energy System Models (ESMs), facilitate evidence-based policymaking at national and international levels. This report provides a descriptive overview of selected models, highlighting their diverse applications and accessibility. IAMs such as REMIND, GCAM, IMAGE, WITCH and MESSAGE, which have been notably used in the development of the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and ESMs such as TIMES and OSeMOSYS are discussed, along with India specific models such as IESS 2047, Rumi/PIER and EPS India. The report outlines the technical attributes and features of the models, such as sectoral coverage, economic growth assumptions, modelling algorithms, optimisation methods, etc., with an emphasis on the usability and scalability of the models. Inter-model comparison tables are provided to help assess the suitability of a model for a desired application. The report also acknowledges the limitations and uncertainties in the models. Recommendations include increasing transparency and accessibility to improve the usability and integration of these tools.
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Overview of climate-economy and energy system models – Hindustan Times
Q&A with the authors
- What is the core message conveyed in your paper
We present an overview of some of the most commonly used Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and Energy System Models (ESMs), with a focus on some India-specific models. These programs broadly model different types of sectors, their interdependencies and interactions to analyse and evaluate the impact of technological developments, policy interventions, etc. on emissions, investments in technologies and other economic indicators. They differ in several attributes such as sectoral coverage, modelling algorithms, growth assumptions and other technical features that determine these results, and these are presented in the summary tables and in the corresponding chapters on the different models.
- What presents the biggest opportunity?
IAMs and ESMs are important tools in climate science research for understanding and assessing different climate change mitigation pathways. They provide policy makers, researchers and other stakeholders with quantitative projections to enable informed decision making. For instance, the selected IAMs (REMIND, GCAM, IMAGE, WITCH and MESSAGE) have been used notably in the development of the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and the ESMs, such as TIMES and OSeMOSYS, have been instrumental in the development of energy and capacity planning studies for several countries.
- What is the biggest challenge?
While these models are constantly evolving to better represent physical systems and their dynamics, they still have many limitations to overcome. In addition, as the scale and complexity of these programs increase along dimensions such as time, spatial resolution, energy conversion technologies, input variables to cover wider economic sectors (such as land use) and modules to incorporate climate feedbacks, etc., the computational and data requirements increase rapidly. These can significantly limit the accessibility and ease of integration of these models, especially for studies on developing countries.
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