The Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) hosted a seminar titled “Global Trends and Trade Policy” on Thursday, February 12, 2026.

The seminar featured a presentation by Arvind Virmani, Hon’ble Member, NITI Aayog. This was followed by a discussion and Q&A session with the audience.

About the event

Two global trends will drive the growth of manufacturing and trade in manufactured goods. One is the increasing concentration of manufacturing value added and manufactured exports in China. The rise in the proportion of manufacturing value added and exports by China is unprecedented in world history. This has led to a counter reaction, which will drive diversification and de-risking of exports from China to other countries. The second is the demographic changes in the global labour force, which is reducing in developed countries and China. Demographic changes imply that India will be the only manufacturing power with an increasing labour force. India will, therefore, have a comparative advantage in human capital, which will be unmatched by any other country. These two international trends can and must be exploited by India to grow its manufacturing sector during the next 10 to 15 years. The presenter argues that India should follow a dualistic trade policy, which retains higher tariffs on China, but reduces tariffs for high-income, technically developed economies/countries such as the EU, USA, UK, Japan, South Korea etc., complemented by a transitional subsidy to attract MNCs supply chain to China.

Presenter

Arvind Virmani 

Arvind Virmani is Hon’ble Member of NITI Aayog. He specialises in policy & institutional reforms for sustained, fast inclusive economic growth.

Dr Virmani is a macroeconomist who has bridged the gap between academics, think tanks and policy makers, through research-based policy advice and policy-oriented research. He played a prominent, professional and advisory role in the economic reforms of the 1990s and 2000s, such as Income Tax, Import Tariff & Trade, Foreign Exchange, Financial Sector & Expenditure Policy reforms.

He was the founder Chairman of the “Foundation for Economic Growth and Welfare” (EGROW) and President of the Forum for Strategic Initiatives (FSI, Delhi) and has earlier served as Executive Director, IMF; Chief Economic Advisor, Ministry of Finance; and Principal Advisor, Planning Commission.

He was Director & Chief Executive of ICRIER and has published over 60 Journal Articles, Books & Chapters, and more than 100 Working and Policy Papers in Macroeconomics, Growth, Tax & Tariff Reform, Foreign Exchange, International Relations and National Security Strategy.

He was a member of the TRAI, a mentor (Public Policy & Economics) to FICCI, and Member of Technical Advisory Committee on Monetary Policy, RBI.

His experience in Finance Sector includes: Chairman, Board of Trustees of SBI Mutual Fund, Director LIC, Member of SEBI Appellate Tribunal and Depositories Act, Member Board of Trustee at UTI and Director in PNB, Allahabad Bank and EXIM Bank.

His Think Tank experience includes: Member, Board of Governors at CPR & RIS, Non-resident Sr. Fellow at the Brookings Institution, USA, Affiliate Professor & Distinguished Sr. Fellow at George Mason University, USA.

All content reflects the individual views of the speakers. The Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) does not hold an institutional view on any subject.

Please contact Gurmeet Kaur at GKaur@csep.org for general queries and Ayesha Manocha at AManocha@csep.org for media queries.